Abstract Population persistence probability is valuable for characterizing risk to species and informing listing and conservation decisions but is challenging to estimate through traditional methods for rare, data-limited species. Modeling approaches have used citizen science data to mitigate data limitations of focal species and better estimate parameters such as occupancy and detection, but their use to estimate persistence and inform conservation decisions is limited. We developed an approach to estimate persistence using only occurrence records of the target species and citizen science occurrence data of non-target species to account for search effort and imperfect detection. We applied the approach to a highly cryptic and data-limited species, the southern hognose snake (Heterodon simus), as part of its USFWS Species Status Assessment, and estimated current (in 2018) and future persistence under plausible scenarios of varying levels of urbanization, sea level rise, and management. Of 222 known populations, 133 (60%) are likely extirpated currently (persistence probability

中文翻译：

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使用公民科学数据估计高危物种的种群持久性

摘要 种群持续概率对于表征物种风险以及为列入名单和保护决策提供信息很有价值，但通过传统方法对稀有、数据有限的物种进行估计具有挑战性。建模方法使用公民科学数据来减轻焦点物种的数据限制，并更好地估计占用率和检测等参数，但它们用于估计持久性和告知保护决策的用途有限。我们开发了一种仅使用目标物种的发生记录和非目标物种的公民科学发生数据来估计持久性的方法，以考虑搜索工作和不完善的检测。作为 USFWS 物种状况评估的一部分，我们将该方法应用于高度神秘且数据有限的物种南方猪鼻蛇（Heterodon simus），在不同城市化水平、海平面上升和管理的合理情景下，估计当前（2018 年）和未来的持续性。在 222 个已知种群中，133 个（60%）目前可能已经灭绝（持续概率