Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming.,Nature Ecology & Evolution

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Developmental cost theory predicts thermal environment and vulnerability to global warming.
Nature Ecology & Evolution ( IF 13.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-03-02 , DOI: 10.1038/s41559-020-1114-9
Dustin J Marshall ₁ , Amanda K Pettersen ₂ , Michael Bode _{1,

3} , Craig R White ₁

Affiliation

Metazoans must develop from zygotes to feeding organisms. In doing so, developing offspring consume up to 60% of the energy provided by their parent. The cost of development depends on two rates: metabolic rate, which determines the rate that energy is used; and developmental rate, which determines the length of the developmental period. Both development and metabolism are highly temperature-dependent such that developmental costs should be sensitive to the local thermal environment. Here, we develop, parameterize and test developmental cost theory, a physiologically explicit theory that reveals that ectotherms have narrow thermal windows in which developmental costs are minimized (Topt). Our developmental cost theory-derived estimates of Topt predict the natural thermal environment of 71 species across seven phyla remarkably well (R2 ~0.83). Developmental cost theory predicts that costs of development are much more sensitive to small changes in temperature than classic measures such as survival. Warming-driven changes to developmental costs are predicted to strongly affect population replenishment and developmental cost theory provides a mechanistic foundation for determining which species are most at risk. Developmental cost theory predicts that tropical aquatic species and most non-nesting terrestrial species are likely to incur the greatest increase in developmental costs from future warming.

中文翻译：

发展成本理论预测了热环境和全球变暖的脆弱性。

后生动物必须从受精卵发展为觅食生物。这样，发育中的后代最多消耗其父母提供的能量的60％。开发的成本取决于两个比率：新陈代谢率，它决定了能量的使用率；和发育率，这决定了发育期的长短。发育和新陈代谢都高度依赖温度，因此开发成本应对当地的热环境敏感。在这里，我们开发，参数化和测试了开发成本理论，这是一种生理上明确的理论，该理论揭示了等温线具有狭窄的热窗口，在这些窗口中，开发成本得以最小化（Topt）。根据我们的发展成本理论得出的Topt估计，可以很好地预测横跨七个门的71个物种的自然热环境（R2〜0.83）。发展成本理论预测，发展成本对温度的微小变化比诸如生存之类的经典措施更为敏感。预计由升温驱动的发展成本变化会严重影响种群补给，而发展成本理论为确定哪种物种受威胁最大提供了机制基础。发展成本理论预测，热带水生物种和大多数非嵌套陆生物种可能会因未来变暖而导致发展成本的最大增加。预计由升温驱动的发展成本变化会严重影响种群补给，而发展成本理论为确定哪种物种受威胁最大提供了机制基础。发展成本理论预测，热带水生物种和大多数非嵌套陆生物种可能会因未来变暖而导致发展成本的最大增加。预计由升温驱动的发展成本变化将严重影响种群补充，而发展成本理论为确定哪种物种受威胁最大提供了机制基础。发展成本理论预测，热带水生物种和大多数非嵌套陆生物种可能会因未来变暖而导致发展成本的最大增加。

更新日期：2020-04-24

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