The evolution of regional arid/humid patterns caused by global climate change deserves attention. We investigated the changes in the area of arid/humid climate regions over Asia under the aegis of national-committed emission reductions to comply with the Paris Agreement using an ensemble of 17 global climate models (GCMs) from the Fifth Coupled Climate Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) archives. Our results indicated an overall trend towards aridity in a future warmer climate based on an aridity index (AI), defined as the ratio of precipitation to potential evapotranspiration (PET). In the future, the humid region will contract and the arid region and arid/humid transition zones will expand. Compared with the present period, arid/humid region switch is projected to occur in a land area of 2512.8 × 10³ km² over Asia under the Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDC)-pledge scenario. If global warming is controlled to the ambitious 2.0 °C and 1.5 °C scenarios instead of that of the INDC-pledge scenario, a decrease in the changes in the area of arid/humid regions by more than half would be expected. In addition, the arid/humid regions with continuous global warming are estimated to contract/expand greatly. Changes in the spatial pattern of the arid/humid zones over Asia show strong similarities between multi-model simulations, although there are some differences in detail.

中文翻译：

---

响应《巴黎协定》国家承诺的减排量，亚洲的干旱/潮湿模式

由全球气候变化引起的区域干旱/潮湿模式的演变值得关注。我们使用第五个耦合气候模型比对项目（17）的17个全球气候模型（GCM）集合，在国家承诺的减排量的支持下，调查了亚洲干旱/潮湿气候区域的变化，以符合《巴黎协定》。 CMIP5）存档。我们的结果表明，基于干旱指数（AI），即未来降水量与潜在蒸散量（PET）的比值，未来干旱气候的总体趋势。将来，湿润地区将收缩，而干旱地区和干旱/湿润过渡区将扩大。与目前相比，预计在2512.8×10 ³  km的陆地上发生干旱/潮湿区域转换²在亚洲预期国家确定的贡献下（INDC）-pledge场景。如果将全球变暖控制在雄心勃勃的2.0°C和1.5°C情景下而不是INDC承诺情景下，那么干旱/潮湿地区的面积变化将减少一半以上。此外，据估计，全球持续变暖的干旱/潮湿地区将大大收缩/扩大。亚洲干旱/潮湿地区的空间格局变化显示出多模型模拟之间的强烈相似之处，尽管在细节上存在一些差异。