Widespread uptake of battery electric, plug-in hybrid, and hydrogen fuel-cell vehicles (collectively zero-emissions vehicles or ZEVs) could help many regions achieve deep greenhouse gas mitigation goals. Using the case of Canada, this study investigates the extent to which increasing ZEV charging and refuelling availability may boost ZEV sales relative to other ZEV-supportive policies. We adapt a version of the Respondent-based Preferences and Constraints (REPAC) model using 2017 survey data from 1884 Canadian new vehicle-buyers to simulate the sales impacts of increasing electric vehicle charging access at home, work, public destinations, and on highways, as well as increasing hydrogen refuelling station access. REPAC is built from a stated preference choice model and represents constraints in supply and consumer awareness, as well as dynamics in ZEV policy out to 2030. Results suggest that new ZEV market share from 2020 to 2030 does not substantially benefit from increased infrastructure. Even when electric charging and hydrogen refuelling access are simulated to reach “universally” available levels by 2030, ZEV sales do not rise by more than 1.5 percentage points above the baseline trajectory. On the other hand, REPAC simulates ZEV market share rising as high as 30% by 2030 with strong ZEV-supportive policies, even without the addition of charging or refuelling infrastructure. These findings stem from low consumer valuation of infrastructure found in the stated preference model. Results suggest that achieving ambitious ZEV sale targets requires a comprehensive suite of policies beyond a focus on charging and refueling infrastructure.

电池电动汽车，插电式混合动力汽车和氢燃料电池汽车（统称为零排放汽车或ZEV）的广泛采用可以帮助许多地区实现减少温室气体排放的目标。以加拿大为例，该研究调查了相对于其他ZEV支持政策，ZEV充值和加油能力的提高可能在多大程度上促进ZEV的销售。我们使用来自1884年加拿大新购车者的2017年调查数据改编了基于受访者的偏好和约束（REPAC）模型，以模拟增加在家中，工作场所，公共场所和高速公路上使用电动汽车充电的销售影响，以及增加加氢站的使用权。REPAC是根据明确的偏好选择模型构建的，代表了供应和消费者意识方面的限制，以及到2030年ZEV政策的动态变化。结果表明，2020年至2030年新的ZEV市场份额不会从基础设施的增加中获得实质性的收益。即使模拟充电和加氢途径，到2030年达到“普遍”可用水平，ZEV的销量也不会比基准轨迹高出1.5个百分点。另一方面，即使没有增加充电或加油基础设施，REPAC仍可通过强有力的ZEV支持政策来模拟到2030年ZEV市场份额高达30％。这些发现是由于上述偏好模型中对基础设施的消费者评价较低。结果表明，要实现雄心勃勃的零排放汽车销售目标，除了需要侧重于充电和加油基础设施外，还需要一套全面的政策。结果表明，从2020年到2030年新的ZEV市场份额不会从基础设施增加中获得实质性的收益。即使模拟充电和加氢途径，到2030年达到“普遍”可用水平，ZEV的销量也不会比基准轨迹高出1.5个百分点。另一方面，即使没有增加充电或加油基础设施，REPAC仍可通过强有力的ZEV支持政策来模拟到2030年ZEV市场份额高达30％。这些发现是由于上述偏好模型中对基础设施的消费者评价较低。结果表明，要实现雄心勃勃的零排放汽车销售目标，除了需要侧重于充电和加油基础设施外，还需要一套全面的政策。结果表明，从2020年到2030年新的ZEV市场份额不会从基础设施增加中获得实质性的收益。即使模拟充电和加氢燃料到2030年达到“普遍”可用水平，ZEV的销量也不会比基准轨迹高出1.5个百分点。另一方面，即使没有增加充电或加油基础设施，REPAC仍可通过强有力的ZEV支持政策来模拟到2030年ZEV市场份额高达30％。这些发现是由于上述偏好模型中对基础设施的消费者评估偏低所致。结果表明，要实现雄心勃勃的零排放汽车销售目标，除了需要侧重于充电和加油基础设施外，还需要一套全面的政策。