Climate change necessitates major changes in infrastructure siting, design, and operations. Successful adaptation of infrastructure management requires overcoming thorny institutional challenges including path dependency and isomorphic pressures that inhibit major shifts in norms and practices. Hazards have been posited as a potential trigger for changing long-standing institutions because they can upend stable system states. However, research on the ability of hazards to shift norms and practices is still nascent and focuses on rapid-onset disasters like floods, hurricanes, or fires. This paper uses the 2012–2016 California drought to assess the potential for slow-onset hazards to lead to institutional change. We assess whether it yielded a shift in institutional norms, namely agency application of existing regulations toward enhanced socio-ecological resilience in the face of climate change. We focus on the environmental impact assessment process under the National Environmental Policy Act and the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission's process for licensing hydropower dams. Using computational text analysis of Environmental Impact Statements and participant observation of infrastructure licensing negotiations, we assess whether, over the years of the drought, agencies placed more emphasis on drought issues or climate resilience in analyzing infrastructure siting and design. In EIS documents, we observe a short-term spike in consideration of drought-related impacts and a longer-term increase in water security, suggesting some shifts in institutional practice; however, consideration of climate impacts decreased over the time period. In FERC licensing, there was no consideration of future climate impacts, despite managers’ recognition that this posed a problem for projects’ future operations. Although these results do not preclude the ability of slow-onset hazards to shift institutional norms, they suggest that doing so is challenging.

气候变化需要对基础设施选址，设计和运营进行重大改变。成功地适应基础设施管理需要克服棘手的体制挑战，包括路径依赖和同构压力，这些压力阻碍了规范和实践的重大转变。危害被认为是改变长期机构的潜在诱因，因为它们可以颠覆稳定的系统状态。然而，关于危害改变规范和实践的能力的研究仍处于萌芽状态，并且侧重于洪水，飓风或火灾之类的快速发作的灾害。本文使用2012-2016年加利福尼亚州的干旱来评估缓慢发作的危害导致机构变革的可能性。我们评估它是否导致了制度规范的转变，即在面对气候变化的情况下，代理机构应用现有法规以增强社会生态适应力。我们专注于根据《国家环境政策法》进行的环境影响评估程序以及联邦能源监管委员会对水电大坝进行许可的程序。通过使用《环境影响报告》的计算文本分析以及对基础设施许可谈判的参与者观察，我们评估了在干旱期间，各机构在分析基础设施选址和设计时是否更加重视干旱问题或气候适应力。在EIS文件中，考虑到与干旱相关的影响以及水安全的长期增加，我们观察到短期的飙升，这表明机构实践有所变化。然而，随着时间的流逝，对气候影响的考虑有所减少。在FERC许可中，尽管经理们意识到这对项目的未来运营构成了问题，但并未考虑未来的气候影响。尽管这些结果并不排除缓慢发作的危害改变机构规范的能力，但它们表明这样做具有挑战性。