Climate and land-use changes are posing increasing threats to freshwater-related ecosystem services, acting both on the supply and the demand side. A better understanding of the dynamics of these potential services, driven by the interactions between the factors mentioned above, could bring benefits to water resources management, the environment, and human well-being. In this work, we developed an integrated modeling approach to assess the conjoined impacts of land-use and climate changes on the potential ecosystem services (i.e. water yield and nutrients retention) until 2050. This approach was applied to the Taro River basin in Italy.

Firstly, the results showed a 20% reduction in water yield was driven mainly by the increases in evapotranspiration demand and changes in rainfall patterns. Furthermore, a mean decrease of approximately 3% of the total nitrogen retention and a mean increase of 3% for the total phosphorus retention could be mainly attributed to land-use changes. Secondly, the rate of change would be different over time with the most pronounced differences between 2020 and 2030 and slower variations afterward. Finally, the obtained results could be a valuable support to identify and prioritize the best management practices for sustainable water use, balancing the tradeoffs among services.

气候和土地利用的变化正对与淡水有关的生态系统服务构成越来越大的威胁，在供应和需求方面都有所作为。在上述因素之间的相互作用的驱动下，对这些潜在服务的动态的更好理解可以为水资源管理，环境和人类福祉带来益处。在这项工作中，我们开发了一种集成的建模方法来评估土地利用和气候变化对潜在生态系统服务（即水的产量和养分保留）的联合影响，直至2050年。该方法应用于意大利的塔罗河流域。

首先，结果表明，水蒸发量减少了20％，这主要是由于蒸散需求的增加和降雨方式的变化所致。此外，总氮保留量平均下降约3％，总磷保留量平均上升3％，这主要归因于土地利用变化。其次，变化率将随时间变化，其中2020年至2030年之间的差异最为明显，而随后的变化则较慢。最后，所获得的结果可能是确定和优先考虑可持续水资源最佳管理实践并平衡服务之间权衡的宝贵支持。