As climate change transforms seasonal patterns of temperature and precipitation, germination success at marginal temperatures will become critical for the long-term persistence of many plant species and communities. If populations vary in their environmental sensitivity to marginal temperatures across a species' geographical range, populations that respond better to future environmental extremes are likely to be critical for maintaining ecological resilience of the species. Using seeds from two to six populations for each of nine species of Mediterranean plants, we characterized patterns of among-population variation in environmental sensitivity by quantifying genotype-by-environment interactions (G × E) for germination success at temperature extremes, and under two light regimes representing conditions below and above the soil surface. For eight of nine species tested at hot and cold marginal temperatures, we observed substantial among-population variation in environmental sensitivity for germination success, and this often depended on the light treatment. Importantly, different populations often performed best at different environmental extremes. Our results demonstrate that ongoing changes in temperature regime will affect the phenology, fitness, and demography of different populations within the same species differently. We show that quantifying patterns of G × E for multiple populations, and understanding how such patterns arise, can test mechanisms that promote ecological resilience.

中文翻译：

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早期发展中的种群变化可以决定响应环境变化的生态恢复力。

随着气候变化改变温度和降水的季节模式，边际温度下的发芽成功对于许多植物物种和群落的长期存在至关重要。如果在一个物种的地理范围内，种群对边际温度的环境敏感性有所不同，那么对未来极端环境做出更好反应的种群可能对于维持该物种的生态恢复力至关重要。我们对九种地中海植物中的每一种使用来自两到六个种群的种子，通过量化基因型与环境的相互作用（G×E）来表征种群间环境敏感性的变化模式，以确保在极端温度和两个条件下的发芽成功率。代表土壤表面以下和以上条件的光照状况。对于在热和冷边缘温度下测试的九个物种中的八个，我们观察到群体间对发芽成功的环境敏感性存在显着差异，而这通常取决于光照处理。重要的是，不同的人群通常在不同的极端环境下表现最好。我们的结果表明，温度状况的持续变化将对同一物种内不同种群的物候、适应性和人口统计学产生不同的影响。我们表明，量化多个种群的 G × E 模式并了解这种模式是如何产生的，可以测试促进生态恢复力的机制。