Abstract Buildings are susceptible to gradual changes in climate and to extreme events. The scale and severity of climate change are expected to be spatially heterogeneous. There is a necessity to consider changing climate in the operation and maintenance of buildings, as buildings have a long-term service life. In this study, the impact of climate change on the risk of freeze-thaw damage for internally insulated masonry wall in two regions in Switzerland (Zurich and Davos) for two future periods is investigated. A hygrothermal model that considers coupled moisture and heat transport in freezing and non-freezing building materials is used. The risk of freeze-thaw damage is evaluated with an indicator, called the FTDR Index. Climate projections under A1B and A2 emission scenarios from ten different climate model chains are chosen to cover a wide range of possible future climates. The risk of freeze-thaw damage at Zurich is relatively high in the reference period. An increase in air temperature in the cold period that leads to less freeze-thaw cycles is the main reason for the lower risk of freeze-thaw damage in the future periods. By comparison, the risk of freeze-thaw damage at Davos is low in the reference period. An increase in temperature and precipitation in the cold period is the main reason for the higher risk of freeze-thaw damage in the future periods at Davos. In the face of climate change, the future requirement on frost resistance of building materials and components at Davos should take the future climate loading into account.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下内部保温砌体冻融破坏风险评估

摘要 建筑物易受气候逐渐变化和极端事件的影响。气候变化的规模和严重程度预计在空间上是异质的。由于建筑物具有长期的使用寿命，因此在建筑物的运行和维护中必须考虑气候变化。本研究调查了气候变化对瑞士两个地区（苏黎世和达沃斯）未来两个时期内保温砌体墙冻融破坏风险的影响。使用了一个湿热模型，该模型考虑了冻结和非冻结建筑材料中的湿热耦合传输。冻融损坏的风险通过称为 FTDR 指数的指标进行评估。选择了来自十个不同气候模型链的 A1B 和 A2 排放情景下的气候预测，以涵盖各种可能的未来气候。在参考期内，苏黎世发生冻融破坏的风险相对较高。寒冷时期气温升高导致冻融循环减少是未来时期冻融破坏风险较低的主要原因。相比之下，参考期内达沃斯遭受冻融破坏的风险较低。寒冷时期气温和降水的增加是达沃斯未来时期冻融破坏风险较高的主要原因。面对气候变化，未来达沃斯对建筑材料和构件的抗冻性要求应考虑到未来的气候负荷。