BACKGROUND AND AIMS In February 2014, pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were required to stop serving alcohol by 3am and operate a 'lockout' from 1.30am. We studied change in the incidence of assault over the following 5 years, including possible displacement. DESIGN Controlled before-and-after ecologic study. SETTING Sydney, Australia. CASES Assaults in specified areas in which police apprehended at least one person. MEASUREMENTS We compared change in non-domestic assault in KX and the CBD with adjacent areas, other city areas, and outer suburbs, adjusting for the trend in the rest of the state during three periods: 18:00-01:29 ('pre-lockout'), 01:30-02.59 ('lockout'), and 03:00-06:00 ('after last-drinks'). We constructed interrupted time-series models with terms for secular trend and season, producing Incidence Rate Ratios (IRR) for step and slope parameters. We performed sensitivity analyses on impacts of missing location data. FINDINGS After the intervention, assaults fell 38% in KX (IRR for step change: 0.62, 95% CI: 0.49, 0.79), and 10% in the CBD (IRR: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.80, 0.99). Assaults continued declining in KX (IRR for slope: 0.990, 95% CI: 0.982, 0.998) and later increased in adjacent areas (IRR for slope: 1.006, 95% CI: 1.001, 1.011), and earlier in the evenings in both KX and the adjacent areas. The net reduction was 627 assaults over 60 months post-intervention, i.e., 10 fewer per month. Estimates were robust to extreme assumptions about missing data. CONCLUSIONS The 2014 alcohol supply restrictions for pubs and bars in Kings Cross (KX) and the central business district (CBD) of Sydney, Australia were followed by a substantial reduction in the incidence of assault in KX and to a lesser extent in the CBD, possibly displacing some cases to adjacent areas and earlier in the evening.

中文翻译：

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通过 5 年的酒类交易时间限制，澳大利亚悉尼发生袭击事件：前后对照研究

背景和目标 2014 年 2 月，澳大利亚悉尼国王十字 (KX) 和中央商务区 (CBD) 的酒吧和酒吧被要求在凌晨 3 点前停止供应酒类，并从凌晨 1 点 30 分开始“停业”。我们研究了接下来 5 年袭击发生率的变化，包括可能的流离失所。设计 控制前后生态研究。设置澳大利亚悉尼。案件 在警察逮捕至少一个人的特定区域进行袭击。测量 我们将 KX 和 CBD 与邻近地区、其他城市地区和远郊的非家庭袭击的变化进行了比较，并针对该州其他地区在三个时期内的趋势进行了调整：18:00-01:29 ('pre -lockout')、01:30-02.59 ('lockout') 和 03:00-06:00 ('喝完酒后')。我们构建了具有长期趋势和季节项的间断时间序列模型，为步长和斜率参数生成了发生率比率 (IRR)。我们对缺失位置数据的影响进行了敏感性分析。结果 干预后，KX 的攻击下降了 38%（阶跃变化的 IRR：0.62、95% CI：0.49、0.79），CBD 下降了 10%（IRR：0.90、95% CI：0.80、0.99）。KX 的袭击继续下降（斜坡的 IRR：0.990，95% CI：0.982，0.998），随后在邻近地区增加（斜坡的 IRR：1.006，95% CI：1.001，1.011），以及两个 KX 的傍晚和邻近地区。在干预后 60 个月内，净减少了 627 次攻击，即每月减少 10 次。估计对于丢失数据的极端假设是稳健的。