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Can we extrapolate climate in an inner basin? The case of the Red Sea
Global and Planetary Change ( IF 3.9 ) Pub Date : 2020-05-01 , DOI: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2020.103151
Sabique Langodan , Luigi Cavaleri , Jesus Portilla , Yasser Abualnaja , Ibrahim Hoteit

Abstract We examine the possibility of making useful climate extrapolations in inner basins. Stressing the role of the local geographic features, for a practical example we focus our attention on the Red Sea. We observe that in spite of being an enclosed and relatively small Sea, its climate conditions are heavily affected by those of the larger neighboring regions, in particular the Mediterranean and the Arabian Seas. Using existing high-resolution information of the recent decades, we use both reasoned extrapolation and knowledge of, past and future, longer term general climatic information to frame what is presently possible to assess for the Red Sea. Specifically, the northern part, influenced by the Mediterranean Sea, shows a clear decreasing trend of both the meteorological and wave conditions in the recent decades. However, within a longer span record of 100 years, this decrease appears to be part of a 70-year cycle, which may be overturning, partly at least, in the coming decades. These trends are consistent with the expectations inferred from regional climatic indices, such as North Atlantic Oscillation and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. No similar long term trend has been found for wave, hence implicitly the wind, conditions in the southern part of the basin. As expected, some correlation exists with the typical patterns of the Indian Ocean, but without any specific indication of a future trend. We suggest that, suitably adapted for the specific local conditions and dominant patterns, similar correlation and physical patterns may exist in several of the enclosed areas of the world, opening the possibility of exploring their possible trends in the future decades.

中文翻译:

我们可以推断内盆地的气候吗?红海的案例

摘要 我们研究了在内盆地进行有用气候推断的可能性。强调当地地理特征的作用,举一个实际的例子,我们将注意力集中在红海上。我们观察到,尽管是一个封闭的、相对较小的海洋,但其气候条件受到较大的邻近地区的影响,尤其是地中海和阿拉伯海。使用最近几十年的现有高分辨率信息,我们使用推理推断和过去和未来长期一般气候信息的知识来构建目前可以评估红海的内容。具体而言,受地中海影响的北部,近几十年来气象和海浪条件均呈明显下降趋势。然而,在更长的 100 年记录范围内,这种减少似乎是 70 年周期的一部分,而在未来几十年中,这种周期可能至少部分被推翻。这些趋势与北大西洋涛动和大西洋多年代际涛动等区域气候指数推断的预期一致。没有发现类似的波浪长期趋势,因此隐含着盆地南部的风条件。正如预期的那样,与印度洋的典型模式存在一些相关性,但没有任何关于未来趋势的具体迹象。我们建议,适当地适应特定的当地条件和主导模式,类似的相关性和物理模式可能存在于世界的几个封闭区域,
更新日期:2020-05-01
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