Abstract Climate change policy for the land sector is challenged by complex biophysical and socioeconomic contexts. A target approach utilising land-use change indicators is often used to quantify and communicate progress, based upon assumed greenhouse gas emission (GHG) reductions. This paper investigated areal targets for woodland expansion and peatland restoration, both of which can deliver substantial carbon sequestration benefits, with uptake typically supported by grant incentives. A case study used empirical data to investigate realisation of such targets in Scotland referenced against ambitious policy commitments (net-zero emissions by 2045). Analysis of actual locations for recent afforestation and peatland restoration, referenced against biophysical data, showed that new woodland primarily occurred on land that was marginal for agriculture, usually on wetter uncultivated semi-natural land, often on organic soils. This acts to constrain net carbon gains. Both peatland restoration and new woodland show tendency to aggregate in specific zones or locations, regardless of biophysical opportunities, highlighting underlying socioeconomic factors. Differential patterns of uptake are also shown by grant applications across different land use groups. Socioeconomic factors act against more ubiquitous uptake of incentive schemes, especially for new woodland on improved agricultural land, which will constrain long-term decarbonisation objectives unless tackled directly. Investigation therefore shows that use of simple targets (e.g. trees planted) as headline progress indicators can be misleading, potentially contributing to policy failure and misuse of carbon offsets. A more spatially targeted approach is required to maximise GHG reductions relative to local contexts. Recommendations are made for improved measures that recognise spatial and temporal variability, as exemplified by certification schemes.

中文翻译：

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通过造林和泥炭地恢复的土地利用目标来实施气候变化政策的挑战

摘要 土地部门的气候变化政策受到复杂的生物物理和社会经济背景的挑战。基于假定的温室气体排放 (GHG) 减少量，通常使用利用土地利用变化指标的目标方法来量化和交流进展。本文调查了林地扩张和泥炭地恢复的区域目标，这两者都可以带来可观的碳固存效益，并且通常由赠款激励措施支持。一项案例研究使用经验数据来调查苏格兰这些目标的实现情况，参考雄心勃勃的政策承诺（到 2045 年实现净零排放）。参考生物物理数据，分析近期造林和泥炭地恢复的实际位置，表明新的林地主要出现在农业边缘的土地上，通常在较湿的未开垦的半自然土地上，通常在有机土壤上。这起到了限制净碳收益的作用。无论生物物理机会如何，泥炭地恢复和新林地都显示出在特定区域或位置聚集的趋势，突出了潜在的社会经济因素。不同土地利用组的拨款申请也显示了不同的吸收模式。社会经济因素不利于更普遍地采用激励计划，特别是对于改良农业土地上的新林地，除非直接解决，否则这将限制长期脱碳目标。因此，调查表明，使用简单的目标（例如种植的树木）作为主要进展指标可能会产生误导，可能导致政策失败和滥用碳补偿。需要一种更具空间针对性的方法，以最大限度地减少相对于当地环境的温室气体。对识别时空可变性的改进措施提出了建议，如认证计划所示。