Abstract Variations of the recent seismicity in and around the Central Anatolian region of Turkey were evaluated based on the seismic b-value, standard normal deviate Z-value, GENAS modelling, annual probabilities and return periods of the earthquakes. The catalog includes 16,702 earthquakes between 1974 and 2019 with magnitudes from 1.0 to 6.3. Time distribution of b-value shows that there is a tendency to decrease after the year of 2002 and b-value decreased from 1.58 ± 0.03 to 1.25 ± 0.05 at the beginning of 2019. Annual probabilities for magnitude ranges of 3.0–4.0 have the values between 3 and 30. Return periods for magnitude levels of 5.0–5.5 have the values from 5 to 20 years, and a value of 80 years for magnitude level of 6.0. The GENAS results show the significant temporal variations in the number of earthquakes smaller and larger than specific magnitude intervals by supplying the beginning periods of increases and decreases in the earthquake activity rate. Remarkable reductions in region-time distribution of b-value at the beginning of 2019 were detected in the regions covering Nigde fault and its vicinity along the south, west, northwest and southwest directions, among the Mut Fault Zone, Karsanti-Karaisali Fault Zone and Karatas-Osmaniye Fault Zone, in and around Surgu fault and along its northwest direction, between Surgu fault and East Anatolian Fault Zone. Significant seismic quiescence areas in Z-value distribution include the northwest ends of the Tuzgolu Fault Zone and study area including Akpinar fault, the northeast of Salanda fault, between Salanda fault and the Central Anatolian Fault Zone, the northeast parts of the Central Anatolian Fault Zone, the west of Malatya fault, between Surgu fault and the East Anatolian Fault Zone, the southeast end of the Tuzgolu Fault Zone, Karsanti-Karaisali Fault Zone and its vicinity, the southwest of Tuzgolu. Thus, these anomaly areas observed in the Central Anatolian region and its vicinity at the beginning of 2019 may be one of the most likely zones for the next strong/large earthquake occurrences.

中文翻译：

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土耳其中部安纳托利亚地区及其周边地区近期地震活动变化的研究

摘要 基于地震 b 值、标准正态偏差 Z 值、GENAS 模型、地震年概率和重现期，评估了土耳其中部安纳托利亚地区及其周边地区近期地震活动的变化。该目录包括 1974 年至 2019 年间的 16,702 次地震，震级为 1.0 至 6.3。b值时间分布显示，2002年后有下降趋势，b值从1.58±0.03下降到2019年初的1.25±0.05。3.0～4.0震级范围的年概率值在 3 到 30 之间。5.0-5.5 级的重现期值为 5 到 20 年，6.0 级的重现期值为 80 年。GENAS 结果显示，通过提供地震活动率增加和减少的开始时期，小于和大于特定震级区间的地震数量的显着时间变化。2019年初，在Mut断裂带、Karsanti-Karaisali断裂带和南、西、西北和西南方向的Nigde断裂及其附近区域，发现b值的区域-时间分布显着减少。 Karatas-Osmaniye 断层带，在苏尔古断层内和周围，沿其西北方向，在苏尔古断层和东安纳托利亚断层带之间。Z值分布的重要地震静止区包括图兹戈鲁断裂带的西北端和研究区包括阿克皮纳尔断裂、萨兰达断裂东北部、萨兰达断层与安纳托利亚中部断层带之间、安纳托利亚中部断层带东北部、马拉蒂亚断层以西、苏尔古断层与安纳托利亚东断层带之间、图兹戈卢断层带东南端、卡尔桑蒂-卡莱萨利断层带及其附近，图兹戈卢的西南部。因此，2019 年初在安纳托利亚中部地区及其附近地区观察到的这些异常区域可能是下一次强/大地震发生的最有可能的区域之一。