Abstract Major chemical accidents may threaten the lives and health of people in the surrounding areas. Large-scale regional evacuation is a key measure for protecting the public from these accidents. In such unconventional emergency situations, the diffusion of evacuation warnings has a significant impact on the public's decision on whether to take evacuation actions. Through an investigation and analysis of evacuation cases, this paper discusses the diffusion characteristics of evacuation warning and evacuation efficiency of the public in major chemical accident cases. The results indicate that different diffusion methods of evacuation warnings affect public evacuation decisions. In addition, based on curve fitting and regression analysis, we propose a mathematical model of evacuation warning diffusion for responsive evacuation and an evaluation model of the relationship between the diffusion of evacuation warning and the evacuation rate. The results indicate that in the responsive evacuation process, the diffusion efficiency of the evacuation warning corresponds to Weibull distribution. As the diffusion of the evacuation warning continues, the evacuation rate of the people who receive evacuation warnings first decreases and then increases, when more than 50% of the people in the evacuation area receive the evacuation warning. The evacuation rate of the people who do not receive evacuation warnings increases first and then decreases. The results of the fitting analysis indicate that when ∼73% of the people in the evacuation area receive an evacuation warning, the area's overall evacuation rate is the highest. This can provide a basis and reference for regional evacuation analysis and emergency planning in unconventional emergency situations.

中文翻译：

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基于真实疏散案例的重大化工事故疏散预警扩散统计分析

摘要 重大化工事故可能威胁周边地区人民的生命健康。大规模区域疏散是保护公众免受这些事故的关键措施。在这种非常规紧急情况下，疏散预警的传播对公众是否采取疏散行动的决策具有重要影响。通过对疏散案例的调查分析，探讨了重大化工事故案例中公众疏散预警和疏散效率的扩散特征。结果表明，疏散警告的不同传播方式会影响公众疏散决策。此外，基于曲线拟合和回归分析，我们提出了响应式疏散的疏散警告扩散数学模型和疏散警告扩散与疏散率之间关系的评估模型。结果表明，在响应式疏散过程中，疏散警报的扩散效率符合威布尔分布。随着疏散警报的持续扩散，当疏散区域内超过50%的人收到疏散警报时，收到疏散警报的人的疏散率先下降后增加。没有收到疏散警告的人的疏散率先上升后下降。拟合分析结果表明，当疏散区内约 73% 的人收到疏散警告时，该区域' 整体疏散率最高。这可为非常规紧急情况下的区域疏散分析和应急规划提供依据和参考。