Abstract The quantile mapping (QM) bias correction algorithm was applied to bias-correcting the daily rainfall over the Malaysia based on the APHRODITE gridded observed dataset. The quality of the bias correction in reducing the biases of regional climate models in frequency (FREQ), mean intensity (SDII) and 90th percentile (Q90) of the daily rainfall was assessed. The result shows that QM performs well in correcting the rainfall statistics. The QM bias correction method was then applied to seven Regional Climate Models (RCMs) projection output from the CORDEX Southeast Asia (CORDEX-SEA) dataset, to obtain high resolution rainfall change scenarios over the Malaysia, based on the IPCC's representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. The ensemble mean of seven RCMs suggests that the future projection expected a decrease in the rainfall frequencies over the Malaysia toward the 21st century for both RCP scenarios. Meanwhile, the rainfall intensity and extremes over the Peninsular Malaysia (East Malaysia) is likely to decrease (increase) especially during the winter (summer and autumn) months by the end of the century. A remarkable decrement of rainfall frequency and extremes was found in western Peninsular Malaysia, with changes of around −4 to −8% with respect to the historical period driven by the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenario respectively.

中文翻译：

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使用偏差校正技术对马来西亚日降水特征的未来预测

摘要 基于APHRODITE网格观测数据集，应用分位数映射（QM）偏差校正算法对马来西亚的日降雨量进行偏差校正。评估了在减少区域气候模型在频率 (FREQ)、平均强度 (SDII) 和 90% (Q90) 日降雨量方面的偏差的偏差校正质量。结果表明，QM 在修正降雨统计方面表现良好。然后将 QM 偏差校正方法应用于 CORDEX 东南亚 (CORDEX-SEA) 数据集的七个区域气候模型 (RCM) 投影输出，以获得马来西亚的高分辨率降雨变化情景，基于 IPCC 的代表性浓度路径 (RCP) ) 4.5 和 8.5 场景。七个 RCM 的集合平均值表明，未来预测预计马来西亚的降雨频率在 21 世纪对于两种 RCP 情景都会减少。与此同时，到本世纪末，马来西亚半岛（东马）的降雨强度和极端天气可能会减少（增加），尤其是在冬季（夏季和秋季）月份。在马来西亚半岛西部发现降雨频率和极端事件显着减少，分别由 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景驱动的历史时期变化约为 -4 至 -8%。到本世纪末，马来西亚半岛（东马）的降雨强度和极端天气可能会减少（增加），尤其是在冬季（夏季和秋季）月份。在马来西亚半岛西部发现降雨频率和极端事件显着减少，分别由 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景驱动的历史时期变化约为 -4 至 -8%。到本世纪末，马来西亚半岛（东马）的降雨强度和极端天气可能会减少（增加），尤其是在冬季（夏季和秋季）月份。在马来西亚半岛西部发现降雨频率和极端事件显着减少，分别由 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 情景驱动的历史时期变化约为 -4 至 -8%。