In today's world, massive on-demand mobility requests are dispatched every hour on ride-sourcing platforms, however, customers later cancel quite a number of these confirmed orders. This paper makes the first attempt to look into this customer confirmed-order cancellation behaviour based on a two-month, hourly average dataset of Didi Express in Shanghai provided by Didi Chuxing. The mean ride distance and pick-up distance of cancelled orders are observed to be obviously longer than those of completed orders of the same time period, reflecting an obvious impact of travel cost on customer decisions of order cancellation. However, the correlation between the mean customer confirmed-order cancellation rate (COCR) and the mean customer waiting time for pick-up of cancelled orders is significantly negative. Shanghai, like many other cities around the world, has coupled ride-sourcing and taxi markets, and as such, this counter-intuitive phenomenon can be explained as an outcome of the lower (higher) chance of meeting vacant taxis while waiting for pick-up during peak (non-peak) hours. We formulate COCR as a function of customer waiting time for ride-sourcing vehicles and cruising taxis, the penalty strategy by the platform for cancellation of confirmed orders, and customers’ own characteristics (i.e., ride distance, value of time, perceived psychological cost of order cancellation, additional safety concern over ride-sourcing), and propose a system of nonlinear equations to depict the complex interactions between the ride-sourcing and taxi markets considering the probability of ride-sourcing cancellation after order confirmation. With the proposed model, we replicate the observed lower COCR under a higher demand rate and longer waiting time for pick-up through numerical examples, and highlight the potential improvement of platform profit that can be achieved by appropriately designed penalty/compensation strategies.

在当今世界，每小时都会在乘车采购平台上发出大量按需出行请求，但是，后来客户取消了许多已确认的订单。本文首次根据滴滴出行提供的上海滴滴快车每月两个月的平均数据集来研究此客户确认订单取消行为。观察到已取消订单的平均乘车距离和取货距离明显长于同期的已完成订单，这反映出差旅成本对客户取消订单决策的明显影响。但是，平均客户确认订单取消率（COCR）与平均客户等待提取取消订单的时间之间的相关性显着为负。上海，像世界上许多其他城市一样，也将乘车和出租车市场联系在一起，因此，这种反常理的现象可以解释为，在等待期间接机时遇到空出租车的机会较低（较高）的结果高峰（非高峰）小时。我们将COCR公式化为骑乘车辆和乘出租车的顾客等待时间，平台取消已确认订单的惩罚策略以及顾客自身特征​​（即乘车距离，时间价值，感知的心理成本）的函数取消订单，增加对乘车出行的安全性），并提出一个非线性方程组，以描述考虑到订单确认后乘车出行取消的可能性的乘车出行与出租车市场之间的复杂相互作用。使用建议的模型，