This paper develops models for hurricane exposure, fragility curve-based damage to electrical transmission grid components and power generating stations using Monte-Carlo simulation, and restoration cost to predict resiliency factors including power generation capacity lost and the restoration cost for electrical transmission grid and power generation system damages. Synthetic grid data are used to model the Energy Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) electrical grid. A case study is developed based on Hurricane Harvey. This work is extended to evaluate the changes to resiliency as the percentage of renewable sources is increased from 2017 levels to levels corresponding to the NREL Futures Study 2050 Texas scenarios for 50% and 80% renewable energy.

中文翻译：

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在增加太阳能和风力发电的飓风风条件下模拟电网弹性

本文开发了飓风暴露模型、使用蒙特卡罗模拟对输电网组件和发电站的基于脆弱性曲线的损坏以及恢复成本以预测弹性因素，包括发电容量损失和输电网和电力的恢复成本。发电系统损坏。合成电网数据用于模拟德克萨斯州能源可靠性委员会 (ERCOT) 的电网。案例研究是基于飓风哈维开发的。随着可再生能源的百分比从 2017 年的水平增加到 NREL 未来研究 2050 年德克萨斯州 50% 和 80% 可再生能源情景对应的水平，这项工作扩展到评估弹性的变化。