Abstract Marine ecosystem forecasting is an area of active research and rapid development. Promise has been shown for skillful prediction of physical, biogeochemical, and ecological variables on a range of timescales, suggesting potential for forecasts to aid in the management of living marine resources and coastal communities. However, the mechanisms underlying forecast skill in marine ecosystems are often poorly understood, and many forecasts, especially for biological variables, rely on empirical statistical relationships developed from historical observations. Here, we review statistical and dynamical marine ecosystem forecasting methods and highlight examples of their application along U.S. coastlines for seasonal-to-interannual (1–24 month) prediction of properties ranging from coastal sea level to marine top predator distributions. We then describe known mechanisms governing marine ecosystem predictability and how they have been used in forecasts to date. These mechanisms include physical atmospheric and oceanic processes, biogeochemical and ecological responses to physical forcing, and intrinsic characteristics of species themselves. In reviewing the state of the knowledge on forecasting techniques and mechanisms underlying marine ecosystem predictability, we aim to facilitate forecast development and uptake by (i) identifying methods and processes that can be exploited for development of skillful regional forecasts, (ii) informing priorities for forecast development and verification, and (iii) improving understanding of conditional forecast skill (i.e., a priori knowledge of whether a forecast is likely to be skillful). While we focus primarily on coastal marine ecosystems surrounding North America (and the U.S. in particular), we detail forecast methods, physical and biological mechanisms, and priority developments that are globally relevant.

中文翻译：

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美国沿海海洋生态系统的季节性到年际预测：预测方法、可预测性机制和优先发展

摘要 海洋生态系统预测是一个研究活跃、发展迅速的领域。在一系列时间尺度上对物理、生物地球化学和生态变量的熟练预测已显示出前景，这表明预测有助于管理海洋生物资源和沿海社区的潜力。然而，海洋生态系统预测技能的基本机制往往知之甚少，许多预测，尤其是对生物变量的预测，依赖于从历史观察中得出的经验统计关系。在这里，我们回顾了统计和动态海洋生态系统预测方法，并重点介绍了它们在美国海岸线上的应用示例，用于从沿海海平面到海洋顶级捕食者分布的季节性到年际（1-24 个月）的特性预测。然后，我们描述了控制海洋生态系统可预测性的已知机制，以及它们如何用于迄今为止的预测。这些机制包括物理大气和海洋过程、对物理强迫的生物地球化学和生态响应，以及物种本身的内在特征。在回顾海洋生态系统可预测性的预测技术和机制方面的知识状况时，我们的目标是通过 (i) 确定可用于开发熟练区域预测的方法和过程，(ii) 告知优先事项以促进预测的发展和采用预测开发和验证，以及 (iii) 提高对条件预测技能的理解（即预测是否可能是熟练的先验知识）。