Abstract The objective of this research was to analyse the potential effect of climate change on phenology and berry composition of the variety Tempranillo cultivated in areas of the Rioja DOCa (Spain) with different climatic characteristics. Three zones were selected within the DOCa, which were located at elevations between 325 and 650 m a.s.l. Phenology and the evolution of berry composition during ripening was analysed for the period 2008-2018. This information included the dates of the phenological stages H (separated flowers), M (veraison) and maturity (based in a fixed value of the probable alcoholic degree (PVAD)) and as well as pH, total acidity, malic acid, total anthocyanins, total polyphenols index and colour intensity, recorded in two plots at each location. The climatic conditions recorded during the period of study were evaluated from meteorological stations located close to the vineyards. The average predicted changes in temperature (maximum and minimum) and in precipitation, under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and simulated using an ensemble of 10 models were analysed by 2050 and 2070 for each zone. These data were obtained using the MarkSim™ DSSAT weather file generator. The relationship found at present between climate characteristics and the phenology and grape composition were considered in order to project the changes under climate change. The results indicated projected increase of temperature higher in the warmer than in the cooler area, and changes in average precipitation, which although being small will contribute to increase water deficits. The results predict that all evaluated phenological stages will suffer an advance, which will be higher for veraison and maturity than for the stage related to flowering. The advance of the stage H, M and maturity for the three zones by 2050 could be up to 5, 8, and 12 days, respectively under the RCP4.5 emission trajectory, and up to 8, 12 and 15, respectively under the RCP8.5 emission trajectory. The predicted advances indicate that the differences in timing that already exists between zones will be maintained or even increase, which will imply reaching maturity in the second half of August in the warmer area and in earlier September in the coolest one. Grape composition could also suffer changes, reaching the required PVAD earlier with a decoupling between anthocyanins and sugars and with lower acidity caused by the increase of temperatures.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对里奥哈 DOCa（西班牙）三个区域内丹魄的物候和葡萄成分潜在影响的可变性

摘要 本研究的目的是分析气候变化对不同气候特征的里奥哈多卡（西班牙）地区种植的丹魄品种的物候和浆果组成的潜在影响。在 DOCa 内选择了三个区域，它们位于海拔 325 至 650 m 之间，并分析了 2008-2018 年期间成熟过程中浆果成分的演变。该信息包括物候阶段 H（分离花）、M（变种）和成熟（基于可能的酒精度 (PVAD) 的固定值）的日期以及 pH 值、总酸度、苹果酸、总花青素，总多酚指数和颜色强度，记录在每个位置的两个图中。研究期间记录的气候条件是从位于葡萄园附近的气象站评估的。在两个代表性浓度路径 (RCP) 排放情景（RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5）下并使用 10 个模型的集合模拟的温度（最大值和最小值）和降水的平均预测变化在 2050 年和 2070 年进行了分析。区。这些数据是使用 MarkSim™ DSSAT 天气文件生成器获得的。考虑目前发现的气候特征与物候和葡萄组成之间的关系，以预测气候变化下的变化。结果表明，预计温暖地区的气温升高高于凉爽地区，平均降水量发生变化，这虽然很小，但会增加缺水量。结果预测，所有评估的物候阶段都将遭受提前，其色变和成熟度将高于与开花相关的阶段。到 2050 年，这三个区域的 H、M 阶段和成熟度在 RCP4.5 排放轨迹下分别最多可提前 5、8 和 12 天，在 RCP8 下分别可提前 8、12 和 15 天.5 排放轨迹。预测的进展表明，区域之间已经存在的时间差异将保持甚至扩大，这意味着温暖的地区在 8 月下旬成熟，而最冷的地区则在 9 月初成熟。葡萄成分也可能发生变化，