Abstract This study explores the seasonal to inter-seasonal and regional changes in temperature (and related uncertainties) over the Arabian Peninsula, by using the multi-model ensemble from the Couple Models Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios: RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. The seasonal temperature changes are examined for three future periods (2030–2039; 2060–2069 and 2090–2099) with reference to the present climate (1971–2000). The 22-member CMIP5 mean multi-model ensemble (MME) shows a significant increase in temperature (at the 95% confidence level) over the Arabian Peninsula during all three future periods, under both RCPs. The results indicate that the southern and central regions of the Arabian Peninsula are likely to experience larger future temperature changes during the winter and spring seasons. On the other hand, amplification in future temperature changes over the northern and central regions of the Peninsula will more likely occur during the summer and autumn seasons. The inter-seasonal analysis of the MME shows large temperature biases during the winter (Dec-Feb) and summer (Jun Aug) months, while the simulated results closely resemble the observations during both transition periods i.e. spring (Mar-May) and autumn (Sep-Nov). The inter-seasonal results also reveal larger (smaller) temperature increases during September, October and November (March, April) for all future periods under both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Results further indicate that the central region of the Arabian Peninsula will experience higher temperatures during all seasons in the 21st century. This information on changes in projected temperature is valuable for the long-term planning of the region.

中文翻译：

---

基于 CMIP5 多模式集合数据集的阿拉伯半岛温度预测的季节性和区域变化

摘要 本研究利用来自耦合模型比对项目第 5 阶段 (CMIP5) 的多模型集合，在两个代表性浓度路径 ( RCP) 场景：RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5。参考当前气候（1971-2000 年）检查了未来三个时期（2030-2039 年；2060-2069 年和 2090-2099 年）的季节性温度变化。由 22 个成员组成的 CMIP5 平均多模式集合 (MME) 显示，在两个 RCP 下，在未来所有三个时期内，阿拉伯半岛的温度显着升高（置信度为 95%）。结果表明，阿拉伯半岛南部和中部地区未来可能在冬春季节经历更大的温度变化。另一方面，半岛北部和中部地区未来气温变化的放大将更有可能发生在夏秋季节。MME 的跨季节分析显示冬季（12 月至 2 月）和夏季（6 月 8 月）月份存在较大的温度偏差，而模拟结果与春季（3 月至 5 月）和秋季这两个过渡时期的观测结果非常相似（ 9 月至 11 月）。跨季节结果还显示，在 RCP4.5 和 RCP8.5 下，未来所有时期的 9 月、10 月和 11 月（3 月、4 月）温度升高幅度较大（较小）。结果进一步表明，阿拉伯半岛中部地区在 21 世纪的所有季节都将经历更高的温度。有关预计温度变化的信息对于该地区的长期规划很有价值。