Abstract A safe operation of a wastewater collection and transport system must consider the probability of overflow events in and off the industry limits. In this paper the reliability of the collection and wastewater transport system of a refinery is assessed by using Cox reliability models. These models were adjusted to take into account the complex nature of the system. Rainfall is considered a model covariable since we are dealing with an open system. The probabilities of overflow from one retention tank either to another or to the water body were evaluated. The results indicate that through the creation of two scenarios, with different rainfall indices, in which it was possible to verify that the higher the index, the lower the reliability of the system. In conditions of rain, non-pumping, and in a one-day retention time, the reliability of the system did not exceed 76 % with a probability of overflow of 24 %. Nevertheless, after 4-day retention, the estimated reliability of the system dropped to 11.6 % and the probability of overflow increased to 88.4 %. And the system gets even more chaotic, if in the presence of rain, the activation of the pumps does not occur. The presence of rain is a factor that accelerates the occurrence of overflow.

中文翻译：

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工业废水收集和运输系统的可靠性

摘要 废水收集和运输系统的安全运行必须考虑在行业范围内外发生溢出事件的可能性。在本文中，使用 Cox 可靠性模型评估炼油厂收集和废水输送系统的可靠性。考虑到系统的复杂性，对这些模型进行了调整。由于我们正在处理一个开放系统，因此降雨量被认为是模型协变量。评估了从一个蓄水池溢流到另一个蓄水池或水体的概率。结果表明，通过创建两个具有不同降雨指数的情景，可以验证指数越高，系统的可靠性越低。在下雨、不抽水的情况下，在一天的停留时间内，系统的可靠性不超过 76%，溢出概率为 24%。尽管如此，经过4天的保留，系统的估计可靠性下降到11.6%，溢出概率增加到88.4%。并且系统变得更加混乱，如果在下雨的情况下，泵不会启动。雨水的存在是加速溢出发生的一个因素。