Abstract

Invasive alien species (IAS) have become an important driver of biodiversity change and exert severe pressure on natural ecosystems. The development of modelling approaches to assess and predict their distributions and impacts, and evaluate management options has increased substantially. We reviewed these modelling approaches, applied in aquatic ecosystems, using a systematic review approach in line with the preferred reporting items for systematic reviews and meta-analyses. According to our results, multispecies/ecosystem models dominated the applications, with dynamic and non-spatial models being the most prevalent. Most of the models included an additional stressor, mainly fisheries, climate change or nutrient loading. The impacts on biota focused on predation, but also on competition and ecosystem functioning, while the impacts on ecosystem services focused on food provision and water purification. At species/population level, most of the studies reported negative impacts; while at multispecies/ecosystem level, negative and both negative and positive impacts were similarly represented. We reflect on the ability of current models to assess different impacts of IAS populations and highlight the need to advance their capabilities to predict future impacts. Further development of models that allow capturing the arrival, establishment and spread of IAS and assess their impacts in an integrated way is still needed. Spatial–temporal modelling techniques bridging with novel analytical capabilities (such as environmental DNA to investigate the presence of IAS and metabarcoding and machine learning to predict future trophic behavior and distributions) may be the key for future achievement.

中文翻译：

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模拟外来侵入物种对水生生态系统影响的进展和挑战

摘要

外来入侵物种（IAS）已成为生物多样性变化的重要驱动力，并给自然生态系统带来巨大压力。用于评估和预测其分布和影响以及评估管理选项的建模方法的开发已大大增加。我们根据适用于系统评价和荟萃分析的首选报告项目，使用系统评价方法，对应用于水生生态系统的这些建模方法进行了回顾。根据我们的结果，多物种/生态系统模型在应用程序中占主导地位，其中动态模型和非空间模型最为普遍。大多数模型都包括一个额外的压力源，主要是渔业，气候变化或营养负荷。对生物区系的影响不仅集中于捕食，而且还集中于竞争和生态系统功能，对生态系统服务的影响主要集中在粮食供应和水净化上。在物种/种群水平上，大多数研究报告了负面影响。在多物种/生态系统层面上，负面影响和负面影响与正面影响都相似。我们反思当前模型评估IAS人群的不同影响的能力，并强调需要提高其预测未来影响的能力。仍需要进一步开发允许捕获IAS的到达，建立和传播并以综合方式评估其影响的模型。