The intensification of tropical cyclones (TCs) and wind-induced ocean waves is expected to be amplified under global warming conditions. In 2010, strong TC Tomas approached the Fiji Islands and caused severe damage. Here, an ensemble simulation technique is combined with a pseudo-global warming (PGW) method to investigate future variations in TCs and wind-induced ocean waves. Ensemble PGW simulations were implemented using the weather research and forecasting (WRF) model with five different future projections. Hindcast and PGW simulations showed similar tracks of Tomas. In four PGW simulations, the central pressures of the simulated TCs decreased. Enhanced near-surface wind was recognized in three PGW simulations around the Fiji main island (Viti Levu). In the other two future simulations, the surface wind speed was weaker than the one in the present climate because of the slight eastward shift in the track and delayed development of the TC. WaveWatchIII (WW3) was applied for offshore wave simulations forced by the wind field obtained by WRF simulation results. In three future simulations, a clear increase in the maximum significant wave height (H_s) was found on the southeastern coast of Viti Levu. One future simulation yielded almost the same offshore wave characteristics as those under the present climate. In another future simulation, the ensemble mean H_s was as high as that in the present climate, but extremely large H_s values were found in several ensemble members. Future simulations using multiple global climate model (GCM) projections showed possible variations in TCs and wind-induced ocean waves which is useful for the risk assessment of various hazards.

中文翻译：

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全球变暖下南太平洋岛附近极端海浪事件的变化：以热带气旋托马斯为例

预计在全球变暖条件下，热带气旋和风浪会加剧。2010年，强大的TC Tomas到达了斐济群岛并造成了严重破坏。在这里，将整体模拟技术与伪全球变暖（PGW）方法结合使用，以研究TC和风致海浪的未来变化。使用天气研究和预报（WRF）模型对五种不同的未来预测进行了整体PGW模拟。Hindcast和PGW模拟显示了Tomas的相似轨迹。在四个PGW模拟中，模拟TC的中心压力降低了。在斐济主岛（维提岛）周围的三次PGW模拟中，认识到近地表风增强。在另外两个未来的模拟中，由于轨道的东移和TC的发展延迟，地表风速比当前气候弱。WaveWatchIII（WW3）用于通过WRF模拟结果获得的风场强迫的海上波浪模拟。在以后的三个模拟中，最大有效波高明显增加了（H _s）被发现在维提岛东南海岸。一项未来的模拟得出的近海波浪特征与当前气候下的几乎相同。在另一个未来的模拟中，集合平均H _s与当前气候中的平均H _s一样高，但是在几个集合成员中发现极高的H _s值。未来使用多个全球气候模型（GCM）预测进行的模拟显示TC和风致海浪可能存在变化，这对于各种危害的风险评估很有用。