Speculative bubbles, market governance and property rights are thought to affect oil prices, but their timing and magnitude are uncertain. Here, we quantify these effects using econometric techniques that identify periods between 1938:1 and 2018:3 (denoting year:quarter) when prices strayed from the levels implied by market fundamentals. We identify nine price regimes that are associated with the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries gaining control over the marginal supply of crude oil, US energy legislation, a precautionary demand shock, the Arab Spring and speculative bubbles. These bubbles raised real oil prices by US$14.31 and US$4.65 per barrel in 2007:4–2008:3 and 2010:1–2011:1, respectively, which transferred US$42.8 billion from US consumers to US oil producers and US$87.4 billion from the US economy to oil exporting nations. Conversely, some sharp changes, such as the price decline associated with the Asian financial crisis, can be explained by market fundamentals.

投机泡沫，市场治理和产权被认为会影响油价，但其时机和幅度尚不确定。在这里，我们使用计量经济学技术来量化这些影响，这些技术可以确定价格偏离市场基本面所隐含的水平时的1938：1到2018：3（表示年：季度）之间的时间段。我们确定了与石油输出国组织（OPEC）相关的九种价格体制，这些组织已获得对原油边际供应的控制权，美国能源立法，预防性需求冲击，阿拉伯之春和投机泡沫。这些泡沫分别使2007：4–2008：3和2010：1–2011：1的实际石油价格分别上涨了14.31美元和4.65美元/桶，分别从美国消费者转移给美国石油生产商428亿美元和从美国消费者转移了874亿美元。美国经济向石油输出国开放。