There is growing evidence that mental disorders behave like complex dynamic systems. Complex dynamic systems theory states that a slower recovery from small perturbations indicates a loss of resilience of a system. This study is the first to test whether the speed of recovery of affect states from small daily life perturbations predicts changes in psychopathological symptoms over 1 year in a group of adolescents at increased risk for mental disorders. We used data from 157 adolescents from the TWINSSCAN study. Course of psychopathology was operationalized as the 1-year change in the Symptom Checklist-90 sum score. Two groups were defined: one with stable and one with increasing symptom levels. Time-series data on momentary daily affect and daily unpleasant events were collected 10 times a day for 6 days at baseline. We modeled the time-lagged effect of daily unpleasant events on negative and positive affect after each unpleasant event experienced, to examine at which time point the impact of the events is no longer detectable. There was a significant difference between groups in the effect of unpleasant events on negative affect 90 min after the events were reported. Stratified by group, in the Increase group, the effect of unpleasant events on both negative (B = 0.05, p < 0.01) and positive affect (B = − 0. 08, p < 0.01) was still detectable 90 min after the events, whereas in the Stable group this was not the case. Findings cautiously suggest that adolescents who develop more symptoms in the following year may display a slower affect recovery from daily perturbations at baseline. This supports the notion that mental health may behave according to the laws of a complex dynamic system. Future research needs to examine whether these dynamic indicators of system resilience may prove valuable for personalized risk assessment in this field.

中文翻译：

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将复原力前瞻性地衡量为日常生活中情绪恢复的速度：心理健康的复杂系统视角。


越来越多的证据表明，精神障碍的行为就像复杂的动态系统。复杂动态系统理论指出，从小扰动中恢复较慢表明系统失去了弹性。这项研究首次测试了精神障碍风险增加的青少年群体从日常生活小干扰中恢复情感状态的速度是否可以预测一年内精神病理症状的变化。我们使用了 TWINSSCAN 研究中 157 名青少年的数据。精神病理学过程被实施为症状检查表 90 总分的 1 年变化。定义了两组：一组症状稳定，一组症状水平增加。在基线时，每天收集 10 次关于每日瞬时情感和每日不愉快事件的时间序列数据，持续 6 天。我们模拟了日常不愉快事件在经历每次不愉快事件后对消极和积极情绪的时滞影响，以检查在哪个时间点事件的影响不再可检测到。不愉快事件在报告事件后 90 分钟对负面情绪的影响存在显着差异。按组分层，在增加组中，不愉快事件对消极情绪（B = 0.05，p < 0.01）和积极情绪（B = − 0. 08，p < 0.01）的影响在事件发生 90 分钟后仍然可检测到，而在稳定组中情况并非如此。研究结果谨慎地表明，在接下来的一年中出现更多症状的青少年可能会从基线的日常干扰中表现出较慢的情感恢复。这支持了这样的观点，即心理健康可能按照复杂动态系统的规律运行。 未来的研究需要检验这些系统弹性的动态指标是否对该领域的个性化风险评估有价值。