One simple marshmallow test in preschool children predicts an array of important life outcomes, according to multiple studies spanning several decades. However, a recent conceptual replication casts doubt on these famous findings. We conducted an independent, preregistered secondary analysis to test whether previously observed longitudinal associations between preschool delay of gratification and adolescent outcomes would be conceptually replicated. Associations were significant for three of the five outcomes we tested using the analytic approach employed in the original studies of the marshmallow test. Relationships between delay of gratification and problem behavior held in bivariate, multivariate, and multilevel models; in contrast, no significant relationships between delay and problem behavior were found in the other recent replication, even though both studies used the same data set. These relationships were better explained by social support than by self-control, suggesting that the marshmallow test is predictive because it reflects aspects of a child’s early environment that are important over the long term. This novel interpretation of the classic findings points to new directions for intervention.

中文翻译：

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相同的数据集，不同的结论：在一项预注册研究中，学龄前儿童的延迟满足可以预测后来的行为结果

根据跨越数十年的多项研究，对学龄前儿童进行的一项简单的棉花糖测试可以预测一系列重要的生活结果。然而，最近的概念复制对这些著名的发现提出了质疑。我们进行了一项独立的、预先注册的二次分析，以测试之前观察到的学龄前延迟满足与青少年结果之间的纵向关联是否会在概念上得到复制。我们使用棉花糖测试的原始研究中采用的分析方法测试的五个结果中的三个具有显着关联。双变量、多变量和多层次模型中延迟满足与问题行为之间的关系；相比之下，在最近的另一个复制中没有发现延迟和问题行为之间存在显着关系，即使两项研究使用相同的数据集。社会支持比自我控制更好地解释了这些关系，这表明棉花糖测试具有预测性，因为它反映了儿童早期环境的长期重要方面。这种对经典发现的新颖解释指出了新的干预方向。