Increasing temperatures and declines One aspect of climate change is an increasing number of days with extreme heat. Soroye et al. analyzed a large dataset of bumble bee occurrences across North America and Europe and found that an increasing frequency of unusually hot days is increasing local extinction rates, reducing colonization and site occupancy, and decreasing species richness within a region, independent of land-use change or condition (see the Perspective by Bridle and van Rensburg). As average temperatures continue to rise, bumble bees may be faced with an untenable increase in frequency of extreme temperatures. Science, this issue p. 685; see also p. 626 An increasing frequency of hot days results in bumble bee decline. Climate change could increase species’ extinction risk as temperatures and precipitation begin to exceed species’ historically observed tolerances. Using long-term data for 66 bumble bee species across North America and Europe, we tested whether this mechanism altered likelihoods of bumble bee species’ extinction or colonization. Increasing frequency of hotter temperatures predicts species’ local extinction risk, chances of colonizing a new area, and changing species richness. Effects are independent of changing land uses. The method developed in this study permits spatially explicit predictions of climate change–related population extinction-colonization dynamics within species that explains observed patterns of geographical range loss and expansion across continents. Increasing frequencies of temperatures that exceed historically observed tolerances help explain widespread bumble bee species decline. This mechanism may also contribute to biodiversity loss more generally.

中文翻译：

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气候变化导致各大洲大黄蜂数量普遍下降

温度升高和下降 气候变化的一个方面是极端高温的天数越来越多。索罗耶等人。分析了北美和欧洲大黄蜂发生的大型数据集，发现异常炎热天气的频率增加正在增加当地灭绝率，减少殖民和场地占用，并降低一个地区内的物种丰富度，与土地利用变化或条件（参见 Bridle 和 van Rensburg 的观点）。随着平均气温持续上升，大黄蜂可能会面临极端温度频率难以维持的增加。科学，这个问题 p。685; 另见第 626 炎热天气越来越频繁导致大黄蜂数量减少。随着温度和降水开始超过物种历史上观察到的耐受性，气候变化可能会增加物种灭绝的风险。使用北美和欧洲 66 种熊蜂的长期数据，我们测试了这种机制是否改变了熊蜂物种灭绝或殖民的可能性。温度升高的频率增加可以预测物种在当地灭绝的风险、殖民新地区的机会以及物种丰富度的变化。影响与土地用途的变化无关。本研究中开发的方法允许对物种内与气候变化相关的人口灭绝 - 殖民动态进行空间明确的预测，解释观察到的地理范围损失和跨大陆扩张的模式。超过历史观察到的耐受性的温度频率增加有助于解释大黄蜂物种数量下降的原因。这种机制也可能更普遍地导致生物多样性丧失。