Simulating the congestion propagation of urban rail transit system is challenging, especially under oversaturated conditions. This paper presents a congestion propagation model based on SIR (susceptible, infected, recovered) epidemic model for capturing the congestion prorogation process through formalizing the propagation by a congestion susceptibility recovery process. In addition, as congestion propagation is the key parameter in the congestion propagation model, a model for calculating congestion propagation rate is constructed. A gray system model is also introduced to quantify the propagation rate under the joint effect of six influential factors: passenger flow, train headway, passenger transfer convenience, time of congestion occurring, initial congested station and station capacity. A numerical example is used to illustrate the congestion propagation process and to demonstrate the improvements after taking corresponding measures.

中文翻译：

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城市轨道交通过饱和条件下的交通拥堵分析：基于SIR流行模型的框架

模拟城市轨道交通系统的拥堵传播具有挑战性，特别是在过饱和的条件下。本文提出了一种基于SIR（易感，感染，恢复）流行模型的拥塞传播模型，用于通过拥塞敏感性恢复过程的形式化传播来捕获拥塞过程。另外，由于拥塞传播是拥塞传播模型中的关键参数，因此构建了一个计算拥塞传播率的模型。还引入了一个灰色系统模型来量化在六个影响因素共同作用下的传播速率：客流，列车车距，旅客转乘便利性，拥堵发生时间，初始拥挤车站和车站容量。