Purpose of Review

Concerns about conflict induced by climate change have captured the attention of policymakers, but the scientific foundations for these claims are contested. This review briefly examines different ways that the future of conflict risk in the context of climate change has been characterized, with a particular focus on scenarios.

Recent Findings

Scientific consensus remains low over the role of climate change as a driver of conflict risk. This is rooted in disagreements over the interplay of socio-economic and climatic factors contributing to conflict risk. There is less controversy that climate change vulnerability, coupled with inappropriate adaptation solutions (i.e., maladaptation) in places where conflict dynamics already exist (e.g., high levels of inequality, marginalization, and political rivalries), tends to increase existing tensions. Additionally, scenario analysis has had an unremarkable presence in recent literature, with more attention being paid to knowledge-accumulation challenges for conflict research.

Summary

Conceptual innovations from the wider climate change research community for the meaning of climate change risk, as well as for scenario research design for risk assessment in the context of climate change, may be vehicles for knowledge accumulation within the fields of security and conflict research.

中文翻译：

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气候变化背景下安全和冲突风险的情景和决策支持

审查目的

对气候变化引发的冲突的关注引起了政策制定者的关注，但是这些主张的科学基础受到了质疑。这篇综述简要地探讨了表征气候变化背景下冲突风险的未来的不同方式，特别关注情景。

最近的发现

关于气候变化作为冲突风险驱动因素的作用，科学共识仍然很低。这源于对造成冲突风险的社会经济和气候因素之间相互作用的分歧。争议较少的是，在已经存在冲突动态（例如，高度不平等，边缘化和政治竞争的地方）的地方，气候变化的脆弱性以及不适当的适应解决方案（即适应不良）往往会加剧现有的紧张局势。此外，情景分析在最近的文献中没有显着的存在，对冲突研究的知识积累挑战给予了更多的关注。

概要

来自更广泛的气候变化研究界的关于气候变化风险含义的概念创新，以及用于气候变化背景下的风险评估的情景研究设计，可能是在安全和冲突研究领域积累知识的工具。