Weather risk is a serious issue in the African small farm sector that will further increase due to climate change. Farmers typically react by using low amounts of agricultural inputs. Low input use can help to minimize financial loss in bad years, but is also associated with low average yield and income. Increasing small farm productivity and income is an important prerequisite for rural poverty reduction and food security. Crop insurance could incentivize farmers to increase their input use, but indemnity-based crop insurance programs are plagued by market failures. This article contributes to the emerging literature on the role of weather index insurance (WII). We use data from a survey of farmers in Kenya, where a commercial WII scheme has been operating for several years. Regression models with instrumental variables are used to analyze WII uptake and effects on input use and crop productivity. Results show that WII uptake is positively and significantly associated with the use of chemical fertilizer and improved seeds, and also with crop yield. We conclude that upscaling WII programs may help to spur agricultural development in the small farm sector.

中文翻译：

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肯尼亚的天气指数保险、农业投入使用和作物生产力

天气风险是非洲小农部门的一个严重问题，由于气候变化，该问题将进一步增加。农民通常通过使用少量农业投入来做出反应。低投入使用有助于在糟糕的年份最大限度地减少财务损失，但也与低平均产量和收入有关。提高小农生产力和收入是农村减贫和粮食安全的重要前提。作物保险可以激励农民增加投入使用，但基于赔偿的作物保险计划受到市场失灵的困扰。本文为有关天气指数保险 (WII) 作用的新兴文献做出了贡献。我们使用来自肯尼亚农民调查的数据，那里的商业 WII 计划已经运行了好几年。带有工具变量的回归模型用于分析 WII 的吸收以及对投入使用和作物生产力的影响。结果表明，WII 的吸收与化肥和改良种子的使用以及作物产量呈显着正相关。我们得出结论，扩大 WII 计划可能有助于刺激小农场部门的农业发展。