Purpose of Review

Climate warming may bear a penalty on future ozone air quality, even in the absence of changes in anthropogenic activities. This penalty has important implications for policy-making, but its quantification involves complex meteorological, chemical, and biological processes and feedbacks that are not well understood. We examined how climate-sensitive processes may affect surface ozone, identified key knowledge gaps uncovered by recent studies, and summarized latest assessments of the climate change penalty on ozone air quality.

Recent Findings

Recent analyses have challenged earlier paradigms on how climate change may affect surface ozone. The widely accepted associations of high ozone events with stagnation and heat waves require re-examination. Emission responses of natural precursors to climate warming may be significantly modulated by CO₂ levels and ecosystem feedbacks, such that the direction of emission changes cannot be robustly determined at this time. Climate variability may drive fluctuations in surface ozone, which has implications for near-term air quality management. Recent studies have generally projected a climate change penalty on ozone air quality, although the magnitudes are smaller than those projected by earlier studies.

Summary

This review examined the latest understanding on the climate change penalty to surface ozone. Critical uncertainties are associated with the meteorological, chemical, and biological processes linking climate warming and ozone, and many of the known feedbacks are not yet included in models. Further research is needed to examine those processes in order to better quantify the climate change penalty on surface ozone to inform policy-making.

中文翻译：

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气候变化对臭氧空气质量的惩罚：对当前认识和知识差距的回顾

审查目的

即使没有人为活动的变化，气候变暖也会对未来的臭氧空气质量造成不利影响。这种惩罚对决策具有重要意义，但是其量化涉及复杂的气象，化学和生物过程以及尚未得到很好理解的反馈。我们研究了对气候敏感的过程如何影响地表臭氧，确定了近期研究发现的关键知识差距，并总结了对气候变化对臭氧空气质量的影响的最新评估。

最近的发现

最近的分析对气候变化如何影响地表臭氧的早期范例提出了挑战。高臭氧事件与停滞和热波的关系被广泛接受，需要重新检查。天然前体对气候变暖的排放响应可能会受到CO ₂水平和生态系统反馈的显着调节，因此，此时无法可靠地确定排放变化的方向。气候的变化可能导致地表臭氧的波动，这对近期空气质量管理产生了影响。尽管强度比早期研究预测的小，但最近的研究通常预计气候变化会对臭氧空气质量造成不利影响。

概要

这次审查审查了对气候变化对地表臭氧的惩罚的最新理解。关键的不确定性与联系气候变暖和臭氧的气象，化学和生物过程有关，许多已知的反馈尚未包括在模型中。需要进一步研究以检查这些过程，以便更好地量化气候变化对地表臭氧的惩罚，从而为决策提供依据。