Climate change is projected to increase fire severity and frequency in the boreal forest, but it could also directly affect post-fire recruitment processes by impacting seed production, germination, and seedling growth and survival. We reviewed current knowledge regarding the effects of high temperatures and water deficits on post-fire recruitment processes of four major tree species (Picea mariana, Pinus banksiana, Populus tremuloides and Betula papyrifera) in order to anticipate the effects of climate change on forest recovery following fire in the boreal biome. We also produced maps of future vulnerability of post-fire recruitment by combining tree distributions in Canada with projections of temperature, moisture index and fire regime for the 2041–2070 and 2071–2100 periods. Although our review reveals that information is lacking for some regeneration stages, it highlights the response variability to climate conditions between species. The recruitment process of black spruce is likely to be the most affected by rising temperatures and water deficits, but more tolerant species are also at risk of being impacted by projected climate conditions. Our maps suggest that in eastern Canada, tree species will be vulnerable mainly to projected increases in temperature, while forests will be affected mostly by droughts in western Canada. Conifer-dominated forests are at risk of becoming less productive than they currently are, and eventually, timber supplies from deciduous species-dominated forests could also decrease. Our vulnerability maps are useful for prioritizing areas where regeneration monitoring efforts and adaptive measures could be developed.

中文翻译：

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北部纬度地区大火后气候变化如何影响树木再生

预计气候变化会增加北方森林火灾的严重性和发生频率，但它也可能通过影响种子的生产，发芽以及幼苗的生长和存活而直接影响火灾后的招募过程。我们回顾了有关高温和水分亏缺对四种主要树种（云杉（Picia mariana），松（Pinus bankiana），胡杨（Populus tremuloides）和桦木（Betula papyrifera）），以便预测北方生物群系火灾后气候变化对森林恢复的影响。我们还通过将加拿大的树木分布与2041-2070年和2071-2100年期间的温度，湿度指数和火灾状况的预测相结合，绘制了火灾后招募的未来脆弱性地图。尽管我们的综述揭示出某些再生阶段缺乏信息，但它强调了物种之间对气候条件的响应变异性。黑云杉的招募过程可能受到温度升高和缺水的影响最大，但更多耐性物种也有受到预计气候条件影响的风险。我们的地图表明，在加拿大东部，树木物种将主要受到预计气温升高的影响，而森林将主要受到加拿大西部干旱的影响。针叶树为主的森林有可能变得比目前低的生产力，最终，以落叶树种为主的森林的木材供应也可能减少。我们的脆弱性地图有助于优先确定可以制定再生监测工作和适应措施的区域。