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Risk assessment in poplar plantations: a case study from northern Iran
Journal of Forestry Research ( IF 3.4 ) Pub Date : 2019-03-08 , DOI: 10.1007/s11676-019-00895-z
Samaneh Namdari , Kamran Adeli , Soleiman Mohammadi Limaei , Zahra Bahramabadi

Linear risk programming was used to determine the optimum cultivation pattern to increase incomes of poplar farmers. Seven clones of Populus deltoides Bartr. ex Marsh. were examined in Guilan province, northern Iran. Growth and price data were taken from previous research at the Safrabaste Poplar Research Station and in interviews with farmers. The Lingo software was used to analyze the data in different forms of E. The results show that when risk was considered, the optimal solution included the clones Pd63/51-x1, -Pd72/51-x3, Pd73/51-x4 and Pd79/51-x6. There was a high growth fluctuations of the clones Pd69/55-x2, Pd77. 51-x5, and Pd caroliniensis-x7 and were not included in cultivation plans. Furthermore, the existing farm plans executed by local farmers, is neither profit-oriented nor efficient in terms of income risk management according to risk efficient frontier. These results could help farmers with different levels of risk-aversion to select proper planting plans.



中文翻译:

杨树人工林的风险评估:来自伊朗北部的案例研究

线性风险规划用于确定最佳种植模式,以增加杨树农民的收入。毛白杨的七个克隆Bartr。前沼泽。在伊朗北部的桂兰省接受了检查。增长和价格数据取自Safrabaste杨树研究站以前的研究以及对农民的采访。使用Lingo软件分析不同形式E的数据。结果表明,考虑到风险,最佳解决方案包括克隆Pd63 / 51-x1,-Pd72 / 51-x3,Pd73 / 51-x4和Pd79 / 51-x6。克隆Pd69 / 55-x2,Pd77的生长波动很大。51-x5和Pd caroliniensis-x7和Pd不包括在种植计划中。此外,根据风险有效边界,在收入风险管理方面,当地农民执行的现有农业计划既不以利润为导向,也没有效率。这些结果可以帮助具有不同风险规避水平的农民选择合适的种植计划。

更新日期:2019-03-08
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