ABSTRACT Phenological shifts of plants and animals due to climate change can vary among regions and species, requiring study of local ecosystems to understand specific impacts. The reproductive timing of insectivorous songbirds in temperate forests is tightly synchronized with peak prey abundance, and thus they can be susceptible to such shift in timing. We aimed to investigate the effect of future climate change on the egg-laying phenology of the Varied Tit (Sittiparus various), which is common and widely distributed in South Korean forests. We developed the predictive model by investigating their egg-laying dates in response to spring temperatures along geographical gradients, and our model indicated that the tits lay eggs earlier when the average of daily mean and daily maximum temperatures rise. We predicted future shifts in egg-laying dates based on the most recent climate change model published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), under a scenario with no climate change mitigation and under a scenario with moderate mitigation. Under this outcome, this species might be unable to adapt to rapid climate change due to asynchrony with prey species during the reproductive period. If no mitigation is undertaken, our model predicts that egg-laying dates will be advanced by more than 10 days compared to the present in 83.58% of South Korea. However, even moderate mitigation will arrest this phenomenon and maintain present egg-laying dates. These results demonstrate the first quantitative assessment for the effect of warming temperatures on the phenological response of insectivorous songbirds in South Korea.

中文翻译：

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预测气候驱动的韩国森林变异山雀（各种山雀）繁殖物候变化

摘要 气候变化引起的动植物物候变化因地区和物种而异，需要研究当地生态系统以了解具体影响。温带森林中食虫鸣禽的繁殖时间与峰值猎物丰度紧密同步，因此它们很容易受到这种时间变化的影响。我们旨在调查未来气候变化对韩国森林中常见且广泛分布的变异山雀（各种山雀）产卵物候的影响。我们通过调查它们的产卵日期来开发预测模型，以响应春季温度沿地理梯度的变化，我们的模型表明，当每日平均温度和每日最高温度的平均值上升时，山雀会更早产卵。我们根据政府间气候变化专门委员会 (IPCC) 发布的最新气候变化模型，在没有减缓气候变化的情景和适度减缓的情景下预测了产卵日期的未来变化。在这种结果下，由于在繁殖期间与猎物不同步，该物种可能无法适应快速的气候变化。如果不采取缓解措施，我们的模型预测，与韩国 83.58% 的现在相比，产卵日期将提前 10 天以上。然而，即使是温和的缓解措施也会阻止这种现象并保持目前的产卵日期。这些结果证明了对变暖温度对韩国食虫鸣禽物候响应影响的首次定量评估。