Dry spells are natural hazards which have strong impacts on the environment and on many socioeconomic sectors. Their evolution in the Mediterranean Basin is a major issue because it is one of the most extreme hot spots of climate change world-wide. Very long dry spells are defined as climatic events characterized by their location, spatial extent, duration, and recurrence. This study investigates the evolution of these events during the wet season and for regional future climate projections of the Mediterranean and European Coordinated Downscaling Experiment initiatives (called Med-CORDEX and EURO-CORDEX). All simulations were performed with different regional climate models and various climate change scenarios. Main results are (i) an increase in the number of very long dry spells (between + 3 and + 31 events) and (ii) an increase of their mean duration and spatial extent. This increase in the severity of very long dry spells may have strong socioeconomic impacts in particular for the most vulnerable areas.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下雨季地中海极端干旱时期的演变

干旱是自然灾害，会对环境和许多社会经济部门产生重大影响。它们在地中海盆地的演变是一个主要问题，因为它是全世界气候变化最极端的热点之一。极长的旱灾被定义为以其位置，空间范围，持续时间和复发为特征的气候事件。这项研究调查了雨季这些事件的演变以及地中海和欧洲协调降尺度实验计划（称为Med-CORDEX和EURO-CORDEX）的区域未来气候预测。所有模拟都是在不同的区域气候模型和各种气候变化情景下进行的。主要结果是（i）极长的旱灾次数增加（在+ 3和+ 31事件之间），以及（ii）平均持续时间和空间范围增加。长时间干旱的严重程度的增加可能会对社会经济产生重大影响，尤其是对最脆弱的地区。