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Does time series analysis confirms the relationship between space weather effects and the failures of electrical grids in South Poland?
Journal of Mathematics in Industry ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2019-07-05 , DOI: 10.1186/s13362-019-0064-9
Agnieszka Gil , Renata Modzelewska , Szczepan Moskwa , Agnieszka Siluszyk , Marek Siluszyk , Anna Wawrzynczak , Sylwia Zakrzewska

Nowadays, when the global and national industry is addicted from various electrical and electronic equipment at a very high level, it is of a special interest to understand the possible origins of the interruptions in the electricity supply. Failures in ground-based electrical and electronic systems, or disturbances of satellites operation caused by influential magnetic storms initiated by the changeable Sun can have a high economic impact on the industry. These strong magnetic storms are triggered by solar-driven disturbances in interplanetary space. Studies of these phenomena have gained a special attention since the incident that had occurred in northern Canada in March 1989. During this event the work of the hydroelectric plant in the region of Quebec was blocked for long, winter hours and many citizens of this region of Canada suffered from a blackout. Analysis performed in the Oak Ridge National Laboratory showed that if that blackout have had taken place in the USA then costs generated only by a not supplied electricity could even reach 6 billion USD. In our paper, we apply time series and statistical analysis tools, i.e. superposed epoch analysis and Wilcoxon Matched Pairs Test, for a large set of data, among them: 4625 failures of electrical grids in southern Poland in 2010, from the total number of 25,616, and 10,656 in the first seven months of 2014, from the total number of 30,155. We investigate only those failures which might be connected with the above described effects. We analyze data of breakdowns with unidentified reasons, as well as failures connected to the aging and electronic devices breakdowns, which occurred during the periods of an increased geomagnetic activity. Based on the data from The Institute of Meteorology and Water Management-National Research Institute we eliminate from the consideration those failures which had meteorological grounds. Our analysis shows the usefulness of these mathematical tools in such a vital for the global and national industry issue, as well, that powerful phenomena of solar origin, somewhat disturbed in 2010 and January–July 2014 the electrical grids productivity in southern Poland.

中文翻译:

时间序列分析是否确定了空间天气影响与波兰南部电网故障之间的关系?

如今,当全球和全国性行业对各种电气和电子设备产生沉迷时,特别重要的是要了解供电中断的可能根源。地面电气和电子系统的故障,或由多变的太阳引发的有影响力的电磁风暴引起的卫星运行干扰,都可能对该行业产生巨大的经济影响。这些强磁暴是由行星际空间中太阳驱动的扰动引起的。自1989年3月在加拿大北部发生该事件以来,对这些现象的研究受到了特别关注。在此事件中,魁北克地区的水力发电厂的工作长期被封锁,冬季,加拿大这个地区的许多公民都遭受了停电。在橡树岭国家实验室进行的分析显示,如果断电在美国发生,那么仅由电力供应不足所产生的成本甚至可能达到60亿美元。在我们的论文中,我们使用时间序列和统计分析工具,即叠加时期分析和Wilcoxon匹配对检验,来获取大量数据,其中包括:2010年波兰南部的25,616电网中有4625例电网故障,以及2014年前七个月的10,656,而总数为30,155。我们仅调查可能与上述影响有关的那些故障。我们分析原因不明的故障数据,以及与老化和电子​​设备故障相关的故障,发生在地磁活动增加的时期。根据国家气象和水管理研究所的数据,我们从考虑中消除了那些具有气象基础的故障。我们的分析表明,这些数学工具对于全球和国家产业问题至关重要,而且强大的太阳起源现象在2010年和2014年1月至2014年7月间在波兰南部的电网生产率中受到一定程度的干扰。
更新日期:2019-07-05
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