Traditional weather and climate forecasting is used by many indigenous communities worldwide as a guide in making important decisions that enable them cope and adapt to climate change-induced extreme weather variation. In many pastoral communities in Africa, traditional weather and climate forecasting remains the most accessible and affordable source of weather and climate information. In this study, we used individual interviews and focused group discussions to systematically document indigenous weather and climate forecasting knowledge among Afar pastoralists, with the aim of making such information available, and enhance use of this knowledge in climate change adaptation and explore synergies with modern weather forecasting system. The Afar pastoralists traditionally predict weather and climate variation through the observation of diverse bio-physical entities including livestock, insects, birds, trees and wildlife. No single indicator is taken at face value; weather forecasting is undertaken in a dynamic process where information collected from different sources, including weather information from the modern weather forecasting system, is triangulated to make the safest livelihood decisions. Before any forecasting information is used, it is evaluated through three traditional institutions that collect, share and analyse the information. These institutions include (1) the Edo or range scouting where traditional rangeland scouts are sent on a mission to assess weather and other spatially and temporally variable attributes on rangelands; (2) the Dagu, a traditional secured and reputable network, where weather information is shared among users; and (3) the Adda or the traditional Afar governance system, which analyses traditional weather information before community decisions are made. This first-time systematic documentation of indigenous weather and climate forecasting knowledge among the Afar communities demonstrated the dynamic process of indigenous weather and climate knowledge production, analysis and communication. This shows the value of indigenous knowledge in contemporary pastoral communities, while highlighting synergies with the modern weather and climate knowledge system for co-production of knowledge that serves the objectives of local people.

中文翻译：

---

埃塞俄比亚东北部阿法尔牧民的土著天气和气候预报知识：在适应天气和气候多变性中的作用

世界各地许多土著社区使用传统的天气和气候预报作为指导，以做出重要决策，使他们能够应对并适应气候变化引起的极端天气变化。在非洲的许多牧区，传统的天气和气候预报仍然是最容易获得和负担得起的天气和气候信息来源。在这项研究中，我们使用个人访谈和小组讨论来系统地记录Afar牧民中的土著天气和气候预报知识，以期提供此类信息，并在气候变化适应中增强这种知识的利用，并探索与现代天气的协同作用。预测系统。传统上，阿法尔牧民通过观察各种生物物理实体（包括牲畜，昆虫，鸟类，树木和野生生物）来预测天气和气候变化。面值不采用单一指标；天气预报是在一个动态过程中进行的，其中将从不同来源收集的信息（包括来自现代天气预报系统的天气信息）进行三角划分，以做出最安全的生计决策。在使用任何预测信息之前，将通过三个收集，共享和分析信息的传统机构对它进行评估。这些机构包括（1）江户或范围侦察，派遣传统的牧场侦察员执行任务，以评估天气和牧场的其他时空属性；（2）大沽 传统的安全信誉良好的网络，用户之间可以共享天气信息；（3）Adda或传统的Afar治理系统，可在做出社区决策之前分析传统的天气信息。这是Afar社区中有关土著天气和气候预报知识的首次系统文件，显示了土著天气和气候知识生产，分析和交流的动态过程。这表明了土著知识在当代牧民社区中的价值，同时强调了与现代天气和气候知识系统的协同作用，以共同生产符合当地人民目标的知识。在做出社区决策之前先分析传统的天气信息。这是Afar社区中有关土著天气和气候预报知识的首次系统文件，显示了土著天气和气候知识生产，分析和交流的动态过程。这表明了土著知识在当代牧民社区中的价值，同时强调了与现代天气和气候知识系统的协同作用，以共同生产符合当地人民目标的知识。在做出社区决策之前先分析传统的天气信息。这是Afar社区中有关土著天气和气候预报知识的首次系统文件，显示了土著天气和气候知识生产，分析和交流的动态过程。这表明了土著知识在当代牧民社区中的价值，同时强调了与现代天气和气候知识系统的协同作用，以共同生产符合当地人民目标的知识。分析和沟通。这表明了土著知识在当代牧民社区中的价值，同时强调了与现代天气和气候知识系统的协同作用，以共同生产符合当地人民目标的知识。分析和沟通。这表明了土著知识在当代牧民社区中的价值，同时强调了与现代天气和气候知识系统的协同作用，以共同生产符合当地人民目标的知识。