Ecosystems have an essential role in providing services to humankind such as nutrient cycling, pest control, pollination, quality of life, and hydrological, atmospheric and climatic regulation. About 60% of the world’s known ecosystems are currently used unsustainably. In Europe, the richness and abundance of biodiversity is undergoing significant decline, partly due to climate change. This article outlines the impacts of climate change on biodiversity by showing both observed and projected changes in the distribution and phenology of plants and animals (phenology refers to changes in the timing of seasonal events). The four major findings are the following. (1) Concerning the distribution of plant species, climate change is responsible for the observed northward and uphill distribution shifts of many European plant species. By the late 21st century, distributions of European plant species are projected to have shifted several hundred kilometres to the north, forests are likely to have contracted in the south and expanded in the north, and 60% of mountain plant species may face extinction. The rate of change will exceed the ability of many species to adapt. (2) Concerning plant phenology, the timing of seasonal events in plants is changing across Europe due to changes in climate conditions. For instance, 78% of leaf unfolding and flowering records show advancing trends. Between 1971 and 2000, the average advance of spring and summer was 2.5 days per decade. The pollen season starts on average 10 days earlier and is longer than 50 years ago. Trends in seasonal events will continue to advance as climate warming increases in the years and decades to come. (3) Concerning the distribution of animal species, Europe’s birds, insects, and mammals are moving northwards and uphill in response to observed climate change. Rate of climate change, habitat fragmentation and other obstacles will impede the movement of many animal species. Distribution changes are projected to continue. Suitable climatic conditions for Europe’s breeding birds are projected to shift nearly 550 km northeast by the end of the century. Projections for 120 native European mammals suggest that up to 9% face extinction during the 21st century. (4) Concerning animal phenology, climatic warming has caused advancement in the life cycles of many animal groups, including frogs spawning, birds nesting and the arrival of migrant birds and butterflies. Seasonal advancement is particularly strong and rapid in the Arctic. Breeding seasons are lengthening, allowing extra generations of temperature-sensitive insects such as butterflies, dragonflies and pest species to be produced during the year. These trends are projected to continue as climate warming increases in the decades to come. Populations may explode if the young are not exposed to normal predation pressures. Conversely, populations may crash if the emergence of vulnerable young is not in synchrony with their main food source or if shorter hibernation times lead to declines in body condition.

中文翻译：

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欧洲的气候变化。1.对陆地生态系统和生物多样性的影响。回顾

生态系统在为人类提供服务方面具有至关重要的作用，例如养分循环，害虫控制，授粉，生活质量以及水文，大气和气候调节。目前，世界上约有60％的生态系统使用不可持续。在欧洲，部分由于气候变化，生物多样性的丰富度和丰富度正在急剧下降。本文通过显示观察到的和预计的动植物分布和物候变化来概述气候变化对生物多样性的影响（物候学是指季节性事件发生时间的变化）。以下是四个主要发现。（1）关于植物物种的分布，气候变化是造成许多欧洲植物物种向北和上坡分布变化的原因。到21世纪末，欧洲植物物种的分布预计将向北转移数百公里，森林可能在南部收缩而在北部扩张，并且60％的山地植物物种可能面临灭绝。变化的速度将超过许多物种的适应能力。（2）关于植物物候，由于气候条件的变化，整个欧洲植物的季节性事件发生的时间在变化。例如，有78％的叶片展开和开花记录显示出上升趋势。1971年至2000年，春季和夏季的平均提前期为每十年2.5天。花粉季节平均提前10天开始，并且比50年前更长。随着未来几十年气候变暖，季节性事件的趋势将继续发展。（3）关于动物物种的分布，欧洲的鸟类，昆虫和哺乳动物因观测到的气候变化而向北和上山移动。气候变化的速度，生境的破碎化和其他障碍将阻碍许多动物的活动。发行更改预计将继续。预计到本世纪末，适合欧洲种鸟的气候条件将向东北移动近550公里。对120种欧洲本土哺乳动物的预测表明，在21世纪，多达9％的物种面临灭绝。（4）在动物物候方面，气候变暖导致许多动物群体的生命周期不断提高，包括青蛙产卵，鸟类筑巢以及迁徙鸟类和蝴蝶的到来。北极地区的季节性发展尤其强劲而迅速。繁殖季节正在延长，一年之内可以繁殖出对温度敏感的昆虫，例如蝴蝶，蜻蜓和害虫。随着未来几十年气候变暖的加剧，预计这些趋势还将继续。如果年轻人没有受到正常的捕食压力，种群可能会爆炸。相反，如果易受伤害的年轻人的出现与其主要食物来源不同步，或者如果较短的冬眠时间导致身体状况下降，则人口可能崩溃。如果年轻人没有受到正常的捕食压力，种群可能会爆炸。相反，如果易受伤害的年轻人的出现与其主要食物来源不同步，或者如果较短的冬眠时间导致身体状况下降，则人口可能崩溃。如果年轻人没有受到正常的捕食压力，种群可能会爆炸。相反，如果易受伤害的年轻人的出现与其主要食物来源不同步，或者如果较短的冬眠时间导致身体状况下降，则人口可能崩溃。