Halogenated Very Short-lived Substances (VSLS), such as bromoform, dibromomethane and methyl iodide, are naturally produced in the oceans and are involved in ozone depletion in the troposphere and the stratosphere. The effect of climate change on the oceanic emissions of these compounds is not well quantified. Based on present-day observed global oceanic and atmospheric concentrations, and historic and future data from three CMIP5 models, past and future sea-to-air fluxes of these VSLS are calculated. The simulations are used to infer possible effects of projected changes of physical forcing on emissions in different oceanic regimes. CMIP5 model output for 1979–2100 from the historical scenario and the RCP scenarios 2.6 and 8.5 are used as input data for the emission calculations. Of the parameters that have the main influence on the sea-to-air fluxes, the global sea surface temperatures show a steady increase during the twenty-first century, while the projected changes of sea surface wind speed is very small. The calculated emissions based on the historical CMIP5 model runs (1979–2005) increased over the 26 year period and agree well with the emissions based on ERA-Interim data. The future sea-to-air fluxes of VSLS generally increase during the twenty-first century under the assumption of constant concentration fields in the ocean and atmosphere. The multi-model mean global emissions of bromoform increase by 29.4% (9.0%) between 1986 and 2005 and 2081–2100 under RCP 8.5 (2.6) and dibromomethane and methyl iodide emissions increase by 23.3% (6.4%) and 5.5% (1.5%), respectively. Uncertainties of the future emission estimates, driven by ongoing environmental changes such as changing oceanic productivity (not considered in this study) are discussed.

中文翻译：

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气候变化下海洋卤化极短寿命物质的未来排放

卤化极短寿命物质 (VSLS)，例如溴仿、二溴甲烷和甲基碘，在海洋中自然产生，并与对流层和平流层的臭氧消耗有关。气候变化对这些化合物的海洋排放的影响尚未得到很好的量化。根据目前观测到的全球海洋和大气浓度，以及来自三个 CMIP5 模型的历史和未来数据，计算了这些 VSLS 过去和未来的海空通量。模拟用于推断物理强迫的预测变化对不同海洋状况中排放的可能影响。来自历史情景和 RCP 情景 2.6 和 8.5 的 1979-2100 年 CMIP5 模型输出用作排放计算的输入数据。在对海气通量有主要影响的参数中，21世纪全球海面温度呈稳定上升趋势，而海面风速的预测变化很小。基于历史 CMIP5 模型运行（1979-2005）计算的排放量在 26 年期间有所增加，并且与基于 ERA-Interim 数据的排放量非常吻合。在海洋和大气中浓度场恒定的假设下，未来 VSLS 的海空通量在 21 世纪普遍增加。在 RCP 8.5 (2.6) 下，1986 年至 2005 年和 2081-2100 年间，多模型平均溴仿的全球排放量增加了 29.4% (9.0%)，二溴甲烷和甲基碘的排放量增加了 23.3% (6.4%) 和 5.5% (1.5%)。 ％）， 分别。