Climate change poses a challenge to the management of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Estuarine ecosystems in particular are exposed to a broad range of environmental changes caused by the effects of climate change both on land and in the ocean, and such ecosystems have also had a long history of human disturbance from over-exploitation and habitat changes. In this study, we examine the effects of climate change and fishing on the Pearl River Estuary (PRE) ecosystem using Ecopath with Ecosim. Our results show that changes in net primary production and ocean warming are the dominant climatic factors impacting biomass and fisheries productivity in the PRE. Additionally, physiological changes of fishes and invertebrates that are induced by climate change were projected to be modified by trophic interactions. Overall, our study suggests that the combined effects of climate change and fishing will reduce the potential fisheries catches in the PRE. Reducing fishing efforts can reduce the impacts of climate change on selected functional groups; however, some prey fishes are expected to experience higher predation mortality and consequently decreases in biomass under low fishing intensity scenarios. Thus, our study highlights the non-linearity of the responses of estuarine ecosystems when climate change interacts with other human stressors. In this study, the whole-ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim) is used to examine the effects of climate change and fishing on a highly developed estuarine ecosystem (Pearl River Estuary, PRE) in the subtropical western Pacific. The oceans variables are extracted from the global earth system model (GFDL ESM2M), including changes in sea surface temperature (SST), hydrogen ion concentration (pH), dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and net primary production (NPP) under the two scenarios RCP2.6 and RCP8.5. We developed a EwE model of the PRE ecosystem and simulated the effects of changing ocean conditions under alternative climate change scenarios as well as three fishing scenarios on the biodiversity and fisheries productivity of the PRE.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化和渔业对珠江口生态系统和渔业的影响

气候变化对海洋生态系统和渔业的管理构成了挑战。尤其是河口生态系统暴露于气候变化对陆地和海洋的影响所引起的广泛环境变化中，而且此类生态系统也有因过度开发和栖息地变化而受到人类干扰的悠久历史。在这项研究中，我们使用 Ecopath 和 Ecosim 来检查气候变化和捕鱼对珠江口 (PRE) 生态系统的影响。我们的结果表明，净初级生产和海洋变暖的变化是影响 PRE 生物量和渔业生产力的主要气候因素。此外，由气候变化引起的鱼类和无脊椎动物的生理变化预计会通过营养相互作用而改变。全面的，我们的研究表明，气候变化和渔业的综合影响将减少 PRE 的潜在渔业捕捞量。减少捕捞努力可以减少气候变化对选定功能群体的影响；然而，在低捕捞强度的情况下，一些猎物预计会经历更高的捕食死亡率，因此生物量会下降。因此，我们的研究强调了当气候变化与其他人类压力因素相互作用时河口生态系统响应的非线性。在这项研究中，全生态系统模型（Ecopath with Ecosim）用于检查气候变化和渔业对亚热带西太平洋高度发达的河口生态系统（珠江河口，PRE）的影响。海洋变量是从全球地球系统模型 (GFDL ESM2M) 中提取的，包括RCP2.6和RCP8.5两种情景下海面温度（SST）、氢离子浓度（pH）、溶解氧（DO）浓度和净初级生产（NPP）的变化。我们开发了 PRE 生态系统的 EwE 模型，并模拟了在替代气候变化情景以及三种捕捞情景下海洋条件变化对 PRE 生物多样性和渔业生产力的影响。