Production of cacao and its products such as chocolate generate a global market. Despite demand, production has declined in a region historically important in the domestication of cacao in Mesoamerica. Chontalpa in southeast Mexico is an important area for cacao agroforestry systems, but a number of factors have affected current production, resulting in the elimination of many agroforestry systems. This study analyzes land use changes in the cacao production region of Tabasco State of SE Mexico using Landsat images from 2003 to 2016 to evaluate whether changes in cacao agroforestry systems into other land use forms are related to land tenure and distance to urban centers. Our results determined that land use changes were significantly lower in ejido lands, compared to other types of land tenure. A shorter distance to urban centers was associated with a higher probability of changing from cacao agroforestry systems to other land uses (grasslands, urban constructions). Members of young generations in the Chontalpa tend to move to urban centers that are continually growing at the expense of other land uses. Therefore, cacao agroforestry systems close to urban areas are more likely to change into this type of land use.

中文翻译：

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土地所有权和城市化对墨西哥东南部可可（Theobroma cacao）农林业系统土地利用变化的影响

可可及其产品（如巧克力）的生产产生了全球市场。尽管有需求，但在历史上对中美洲可可驯化很重要的地区，产量下降了。墨西哥东南部的 Chontalpa 是可可农林业系统的重要地区，但许多因素影响了当前的生产，导致许多农林业系统被淘汰。本研究使用 2003 年至 2016 年的 Landsat 图像分析了墨西哥东南部塔巴斯科州可可生产区的土地利用变化，以评估可可农林业系统向其他土地利用形式的变化是否与土地所有权和与城市中心的距离有关。我们的结果确定，与其他类型的土地使用权相比，ejido 土地的土地利用变化显着降低。到市中心的距离越短，从可可农林业系统转变为其他土地用途（草地、城市建设）的可能性就越大。Chontalpa 的年轻一代倾向于搬到以牺牲其他土地用途为代价不断增长的城市中心。因此，靠近市区的可可农林业系统更有可能转变为这种土地利用方式。