To an extent the question posed in the title of this paper can simply be answered in the affirmative. Based on the extensive data available from the National Family Health Survey-1 (NFHS-1) conducted in 1992–93 and NFHS-4 in 2015–16 there has been a significant overall decline of some 19% in the prevalence of consanguineous marriage in India. However, when examined at state level the picture is more complex, with large reductions in consanguinity in southern states where intra-familial marriage previously has been strongly favoured, whereas in some northern states in which close kin unions traditionally have been proscribed small increases were recorded. In a country such as India, comprising an estimated 18% of the current world population and with multiple ethnic, religious, geographical and social sub-divisions, apparently contrary findings of this nature are not unexpected – especially given the major shifts that are underway in family sizes, in education and employment, and with rapid urbanization. The changing health profile of the population also is an important factor, with non-communicable diseases now responsible for a majority of morbidity and premature mortality in adulthood. The degree to which future alterations in the prevalence and profile of consanguineous marriage occur, and at what rate, is difficult to predict – the more so given the markedly diverse cultural identities that remain extant across the Sub-Continent, and ongoing intra-community endogamy.

中文翻译：

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长期以来人们预测的印度近亲婚姻减少了吗？

在某种程度上，本文标题中提出的问题可以简单地给出肯定的回答。根据 1992-93 年进行的全国家庭健康调查 1 (NFHS-1) 和 2015-16 年的 NFHS-4 提供的大量数据，近亲结婚率总体上显着下降了约 19%。印度。然而，当在州一级进行检查时，情况更为复杂，在以前强烈支持家庭内婚姻的南部各州，血缘关系大幅减少，而在传统上禁止近亲结合的一些北部州，则记录到小幅增加. 在印度这样的国家，估计占当前世界人口的 18%，并有多个种族、宗教、地理和社会细分，这种性质明显相反的发现并不出人意料——尤其是考虑到家庭规模、教育和就业以及快速城市化正在发生的重大变化。人口健康状况的变化也是一个重要因素，非传染性疾病现在是成年期发病率和过早死亡的主要原因。未来近亲婚姻的流行程度和特征发生变化的程度，以及变化的速度，很难预测——考虑到在整个次大陆仍然存在的明显多样化的文化身份，以及持续的社区内通婚现象，更是如此. 人口健康状况的变化也是一个重要因素，非传染性疾病现在是成年期发病率和过早死亡的主要原因。未来近亲婚姻的流行程度和特征发生变化的程度，以及变化的速度，很难预测——考虑到在整个次大陆仍然存在的明显多样化的文化身份，以及持续的社区内通婚现象，更是如此. 人口健康状况的变化也是一个重要因素，非传染性疾病现在是成年期发病率和过早死亡的主要原因。未来近亲婚姻的流行程度和特征发生变化的程度，以及变化的速度，很难预测——考虑到在整个次大陆仍然存在的明显多样化的文化身份，以及持续的社区内通婚现象，更是如此.