In recent years, fire services in Mediterranean Europe have been overwhelmed by extreme wildfire behavior. As a consequence, fire management has moved to defensive strategies with a focus only on the known risks (the fear trap). In this region, wildfires can change rapidly, increasing the uncertainty and causing complex operational scenarios that impact society right from the initial hours. To address this challenge, proactive approaches are an alternative to defensive and reactive strategies. We propose a methodology that integrates the uncertainty of decisions and the cost of each opportunity into the strategic decision-making process. The methodology takes into account values such as fire-fighting safety, organizational resilience, landscape resilience, and social values. Details of the methods and principles used to develop and implement a creative decision-making process that empower the fireline are provided. A tool that segregates the landscape into polygons of fire potential and defines the connectivity between those polygons is used. Two examples of operational implementation of this methodology are presented (2014 Tivissa Fire and 2015 Odena Fire). These methods facilitate the analysis of possible scenarios of resolution and the costs of the opportunities that help build resilient emergency response systems and prevent their collapse. Moreover, they help explain the risk to society and involve citizens in the decision-making process. These methods are based on the experience and lessons learned by European incident commanders, managers, and researchers collected during the last decade.

中文翻译：

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增强野火管理的战略决策能力：避免恐惧陷阱并创造弹性景观

近年来，极端野火行为使地中海欧洲的消防服务不堪重负。结果，火灾管理已转向防御策略，仅侧重于已知风险（恐惧陷阱）。在该地区，野火可能会迅速改变，增加了不确定性，并导致了复杂的运营场景，这些场景从最初的几个小时就开始影响社会。为了应对这一挑战，主动的方法可以替代防御和被动的策略。我们提出了一种将决策的不确定性和每个机会的成本整合到战略决策过程中的方法。该方法论考虑了诸如消防安全，组织弹性，景观弹性和社会价值等价值。提供了用于开发和实施赋予火线权力的创造性决策过程的方法和原理的详细信息。使用了一种将景观分为潜在火灾的多边形并定义这些多边形之间的连通性的工具。给出了此方法的两个操作实施示例（2014年Tivissa Fire和2015 Odena Fire）。这些方法有助于分析可能的解决方案和机会成本，这些机会有助于建立弹性的应急系统并防止其崩溃。此外，它们有助于解释对社会的风险并使公民参与决策过程。这些方法是基于过去十年中欧洲事件指挥官，管理人员和研究人员收集的经验教训。