National and international efforts to manage forest biosecurity create tension between opposing sources of ecological and economic irreversibility. Phytosanitary policies designed to protect national borders from biological invasions incur sunk costs deriving from economic and political irreversibilities that incentivizes wait-and-see decision-making. However, the potential for irreversible ecological and economic damages resulting from failed phytosanitary policies argues for precautionary measures, creating sunk benefits while increasing the risk of over-investment in phytosanitary security. Here, we describe the inherent tension between these sources of irreversibility in economic terms, relate these forces to type I and type II errors, and use this framework to review national and international efforts to protect forests from biological invasions. Available historical evidence suggests that wait-and-see phytosanitary decision-making has dominated the adoption of precautionary measures in most regions and that willingness to under-regulate may sometimes be orders of magnitude greater than willingness to over-regulate. Reducing scientific uncertainty about threats to biosecurity may help mitigate the tendency to under-regulate, and phytosanitary security measures with relatively modest sunk costs could help protect forests as scientific learning advances. A fuller accounting of the costs associated with type II errors, particularly regarding the suite of non-market ecosystem services at risk, would help decision-makers better understand the trade-offs between the sunk costs of policies and long-term economic losses to stakeholders.

中文翻译：

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基本的经济不确定性影响加强国际森林植物检疫安全的政策

管理森林生物安全的国家和国际努力在生态和经济不可逆转的相反来源之间造成了紧张。旨在保护国界免遭生物入侵的植物检疫政策会产生沉没成本，这些沉没成本源于经济和政治上的不可逆转性，从而刺激了人们的观望决策。但是，由于植物检疫政策失败而造成的不可逆转的生态和经济损害的潜力，要求采取预防措施，产生沉没效益，同时增加对植物检疫安全过度投资的风险。在这里，我们从经济角度描述这些不可逆源之间的内在张力，将这些力与I型和II型错误相关联，并使用该框架来审查国家和国际保护森林免受生物入侵的努力。现有的历史证据表明，在大多数地区，采取观望性植物检疫决策已成为采取预防措施的主要手段，对管制不足的意愿有时可能比对管制过度的意愿要高几个数量级。减少关于生物安全威胁的科学不确定性可能有助于减轻管制不足的趋势，而沉没成本相对较低的植物检疫安全措施则可以随着科学学习的发展而帮助保护森林。对与第二类错误相关的成本进行更全面的会计处理，尤其是有关面临风险的非市场生态系统服务套件的费用，