ABSTRACT

Dengue is a major public health concern mainly in tropical and subtropical environments worldwide. Despite several attempts to prevent this disease occurring in tropical regions of Mexico, it has not yet been controlled. This work focused on spatial modeling of confirmed dengue fever cases that occurred during the period 2010–2014 in the Huasteca Potosina region of Mexico. Multivariable Logistic Regression Modeling (MLRM) was used to determine the relationship between explanatory variables and the presence/absence of dengue. Model performance was evaluated using the area under curve (AUC) of the relative operating characteristic (ROC); AUC > 0.95. A high spatial resolution map was created to reveal the most probable patterns of dengue risk. Our results can be used for targeted control and prevention programs at local and regional levels. This methodology can be applied to other major diseases that are spatially distributed in accordance with environmental factors.

摘要

登革热是主要在全球热带和亚热带环境中的主要公共卫生问题。尽管在墨西哥的热带地区曾多次尝试预防这种疾病的发生，但仍未得到控制。这项工作的重点是对 2010 年至 2014 年期间在墨西哥 Huasteca Potosina 地区发生的确诊登革热病例进行空间建模。多变量逻辑回归模型 (MLRM) 用于确定解释变量与登革热的存在/不存在之间的关系。使用相对操作特性 (ROC) 的曲线下面积 (AUC) 评估模型性能；AUC > 0.95。创建了高空间分辨率地图以揭示登革热风险的最可能模式。我们的结果可用于地方和区域层面的有针对性的控制和预防计划。