Using longitudinal survey data from northern Ethiopia collected over 18 months, this study shows that conclusions about household food security are highly sensitive to measurement decisions. Especially important are 1) decisions about which food security indicators and cut-offs are chosen, and 2) whether analysis focuses on food security status at a given point in time or food security resilience over time. We define resilience as the probability that a household is truly above a chosen food security cut-off, given its underlying assets, demographic characteristics, and past food security status. Our study finds that different factors determine food security status and food security resilience. We also find that the drivers of resilience vary depending on whether food security is measured by Food Consumption Score (FCS) or the reduced Coping Strategies Index (rCSI). Literacy and livestock holdings are associated with both FCS status and FCS resilience, and the latter is also predicted by access to safe water and sanitation, the dependency ratio, and debt. In contrast, only previous rCSI scores predict current rCSI status, while marital status, literacy, livestock, and other forces matter for determining rCSI resilience. We also find that conclusions about food security resilience are sensitive to the cut-offs chosen to signify a food secure state.

中文翻译：

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粮食安全指标的选择如何影响复原力的评估——以埃塞俄比亚北部为例

本研究使用从埃塞俄比亚北部收集的超过 18 个月的纵向调查数据，表明有关家庭粮食安全的结论对衡量决策高度敏感。尤其重要的是 1) 决定选择哪些粮食安全指标和临界值，以及 2) 分析的重点是特定时间点的粮食安全状况还是一段时间内的粮食安全复原力。我们将弹性定义为考虑到其基础资产、人口特征和过去的粮食安全状况，一个家庭真正高于选定的粮食安全临界值的概率。我们的研究发现，不同的因素决定了粮食安全状况和粮食安全弹性。我们还发现，恢复力的驱动因素因粮食安全是通过食品消费评分 (FCS) 还是降低的应对策略指数 (rCSI) 来衡量而有所不同。识字率和牲畜持有量与 FCS 状态和 FCS 恢复力有关，后者还可以通过获得安全水和卫生设施、抚养比率和债务来预测。相比之下，只有以前的 rCSI 分数才能预测当前的 rCSI 状态，而婚姻状况、识字率、牲畜和其他因素对确定 rCSI 弹性很重要。我们还发现，关于粮食安全弹性的结论对选择来表示粮食安全状态的临界值很敏感。抚养比率和债务。相比之下，只有以前的 rCSI 分数才能预测当前的 rCSI 状态，而婚姻状况、识字率、牲畜和其他因素对确定 rCSI 弹性很重要。我们还发现，关于粮食安全弹性的结论对选择来表示粮食安全状态的临界值很敏感。抚养比率和债务。相比之下，只有以前的 rCSI 分数才能预测当前的 rCSI 状态，而婚姻状况、识字率、牲畜和其他因素对确定 rCSI 弹性很重要。我们还发现，关于粮食安全弹性的结论对选择来表示粮食安全状态的临界值很敏感。