Purpose of Review

The European Union’s targets to reduce greenhouse gas emissions have led to the increasing demand for forest biomass in energy production, which, in turn, has raised questions about the adequacy of supply and the sustainability of forest biomass resources for energy. Although the prospects of using biomass for energy have been studied extensively, the outcomes and estimates differ widely between studies. Understanding the differences between the estimates can facilitate their utilisation in policy and investment planning. In this review, we identify and summarise the factors and assumptions affecting the forest bioenergy potential estimates.

Recent Findings

For the purpose of comparing bioenergy potential estimates, there is a need to harmonise units, concepts and methods—the range of estimates is partly attributable to the differences in what the term potential refers to. In terms of methods, perhaps the most significant drawback in some of the previous estimates indicating a “market gap” has been the neglect of market mechanisms, i.e. price dynamics and international trade. Some essential market assumptions have also been overlooked, notably how the demand for and supply of forest biomass for energy are closely related to the development and vitality of traditional forest industries, as well as to the development of forest products markets.

Summary

The estimates for bioenergy potentials vary mostly due to differences in the scope of the studies, methods and approaches employed and assumptions concerning market developments. Studies have been primarily focused on the theoretical or technical potential for bioenergy and paid less attention to economic and sustainable potential that would provide more policy relevance. Further research on forest bioenergy resources could benefit from increased attention to the interdependencies between markets, the costs and externalities of bioenergy production and sustainability of forest biomass sourcing.

中文翻译：

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评估未来森林生物能源市场的复杂性-欧盟生物能源潜力估算的综述

审查目的

欧盟减少温室气体排放的目标导致能源生产中对森林生物量的需求不断增加，这反过来又引发了人们对森林能源生物量供应的充足性和可持续性的质疑。尽管对生物质用于能源的前景进行了广泛的研究，但研究之间的结果和估计差异很大。了解估计之间的差异可以促进其在政策和投资计划中的利用。在这篇综述中，我们确定并总结了影响森林生物能源潜力估算的因素和假设。

最近的发现

为了比较生物能源潜力估算，有必要统一单位，概念和方法，估算范围的部分原因是潜力一词所指的不同。就方法而言，在某些先前估计中表明存在“市场缺口”的最大缺点可能是对市场机制的忽视，即价格动态和国际贸易。还忽略了一些基本的市场假设，特别是对森林生物质能源的需求和供应如何与传统森林产业的发展和活力以及林产品市场的发展紧密相关。

概要

生物能源潜力的估计值之所以变化，主要是由于研究范围，所采用的方法和方法以及有关市场发展的假设存在差异。研究主要集中在生物能源的理论或技术潜力上，而对可提供更多政策相关性的经济和可持续潜力的关注较少。对森林生物能源资源的进一步研究可能会受益于对市场之间相互依存，生物能源生产的成本和外部性以及森林生物量采购可持续性的关注。