About 160 000 km² of forests in the border zone between Brazil and Peru are dominated by semi-scandent bamboos (Guadua spp.). We argue that both predicted decreased precipitation during the dry season and widespread anthropogenic disturbances will significantly increase the distribution and biomass of bamboos in the area. Seasonal dryness favours the growth of evergreen bamboos in relation to trees that shed their leaves during the dry season. Disturbance can be beneficial for the bamboo because, as a clonal plant, it is often able to recover more rapidly than trees. It also withstands dry season better than many trees. The bamboo life cycle ends in a mass mortality event every 28 years, producing potential fuel for a forest fire. Presently, natural forest fires hardly exist in the area. However, in the projected future climate with more pronounced dry season and with increased fuel load after bamboo die-off events the forests may start to catch fire that has escaped from inhabited areas or even started naturally. Fires can kill trees, thus further increasing the fuel load of the forest. As a result, the landscape may start to convert to a savanna ecosystem.

中文翻译：

---

竹子，气候变化和森林利用：西南亚马逊森林的关键组合？

约160000公里²在巴西和秘鲁之间的边境地带的森林是由半蔓性竹子为主（瓜多spp。）。我们认为，预测干旱季节降水减少和人为干扰的广泛发生都将大大增加该地区竹子的分布和生物量。相对于在干燥季节落叶的树木，季节性干燥有利于常绿竹子的生长。干扰对于竹子可能是有益的，因为作为克隆植物，它通常比树木恢复得更快。它也比许多树木更好地抵抗旱季。竹子的生命周期以每28年的一次大规模死亡事件结束，为森林大火提供了潜在的燃料。目前，该地区几乎不存在天然林火。然而，在预计的未来气候中，干旱季节更加明显，竹子死亡事件后燃料负荷增加，森林可能会开始着火，这些火已经从有人居住的地方逃脱了，甚至自然地开始了。火灾会杀死树木，从而进一步增加森林的燃料负荷。结果，景观可能开始转变为热带稀树草原生态系统。