Construction companies typically work on many projects simultaneously each with its own objectives and resource demands. Consequently, a key managerial function is to allocate financial, equipment, and human resources between these concurrent projects in a way that satisfies the individual project constraints while optimizing the company’s overall objectives. Project portfolio management is concerned with managing multiple projects to accomplish strategic goals. The main concentrations of research so far have been project selection, prioritization and alignment of a portfolio with strategic goals among a pool of awarded projects. The objective of this research is to develop a model capable of generating representative future streams of projects that can be used to assist in strategic planning and portfolio management. This paper reports on an on-going research project aimed at developing and validating a stochastic model of streams of uncertain and unknown future projects and to demonstrate the significance and implications of such uncertainties on project portfolio and strategic planning. The scope of the research is Florida Department of Transportation (FDOT) projects. Records of the past 12 years letting information combined with a pool of candidate variables is analyzed to capture characteristics of the time series data and to determine any project characteristic correlations with macroeconomic factors. The performances of the various model components presented indicate the viability of an integrated project stream forecaster that predicts, within a simulation environment, the frequencies of projects and empirical distributions of project duration and cost. The gap in the current body of knowledge is a lack of consideration of the effects of uncertainties associated with future projects, both known (but yet to be awarded to a contractor) and unknown (although statistically quantifiable). It is evident that companies should not just focus on current known projects but also uncertain and unknown future projects. Such a capability, looking into the future, is key to the effective medium and long-term strategic planning for the company. Contractors can, for example, use these stochastic streams of data to test different bidding strategies and to see how sensitive the performance of their portfolio is to changes in different market factors.

中文翻译：

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用于建设项目组合管理的项目流的随机预测

建筑公司通常同时进行许多项目，每个项目都有自己的目标和资源需求。因此，关键的管理功能是在满足并发项目需求的同时，在优化公司的总体目标的同时满足各个项目约束的方式分配财务，设备和人力资源。项目组合管理涉及管理多个项目以实现战略目标。迄今为止，研究的主要重点是项目选择，优先项目的确定以及在众多获奖项目中使具有战略目标的投资组合保持一致。这项研究的目的是开发一种能够生成具有代表性的未来项目流的模型，该模型可用于协助战略规划和项目组合管理。本文报告了一个正在进行的研究项目，该项目旨在开发和验证不确定和未知未来项目流的随机模型，并证明此类不确定性对项目组合和战略规划的重要性和影响。研究范围是佛罗里达运输部（FDOT）的项目。分析过去12年的记录，将信息与一组候选变量组合在一起，以捕获时间序列数据的特征，并确定与宏观经济因素之间的任何项目特征相关性。所展示的各种模型组件的性能表明了集成项目流预测器的可行性，该预测器在模拟环境中预测项目的频率以及项目工期和成本的经验分布。当前知识方面的空白是缺乏对与未来项目相关的不确定性的影响的考虑，这些不确定性既是已知的（但尚未授予承包商），也是未知的（尽管在统计上可以量化）。显然，公司不仅应专注于当前已知的项目，而且还应专注于不确定和未知的未来项目。展望未来，这种能力是公司有效的中长期战略规划的关键。承包商可以，例如，使用这些随机数据流来测试不同的投标策略，并查看其投资组合的绩效对不同市场因素变化的敏感程度。既已知（但尚未授予承包商），也未知（尽管可以统计量化）。显然，公司不仅应该专注于当前已知的项目，而且还应该专注于不确定和未知的未来项目。展望未来，这种能力是公司有效的中长期战略规划的关键。承包商可以，例如，使用这些随机数据流来测试不同的投标策略，并查看其投资组合的绩效对不同市场因素变化的敏感程度。既已知（但尚未授予承包商），也未知（尽管可以统计量化）。显然，公司不仅应该专注于当前已知的项目，而且还应该专注于不确定和未知的未来项目。展望未来，这种能力是公司有效的中长期战略规划的关键。承包商可以，例如，使用这些随机数据流来测试不同的投标策略，并查看其投资组合的绩效对不同市场因素变化的敏感程度。是公司有效的中长期战略规划的关键。承包商可以，例如，使用这些随机数据流来测试不同的投标策略，并查看其投资组合的绩效对不同市场因素变化的敏感程度。是公司有效的中长期战略规划的关键。承包商可以，例如，使用这些随机数据流来测试不同的投标策略，并查看其投资组合的绩效对不同市场因素变化的敏感程度。