A numerical simulation study of the Karaha–Talaga Bodas geothermal field was carried out to assess the resource and to analyze and predict reservoir behavior under various development scenarios. The three-dimensional natural state model of the Karaha–Talaga Bodas field has been validated with the pressure and temperature of seven wells and the conceptual model of the field. This study explores the application of an experimental design and response surface method for capturing relevant uncertainties existing in the geothermal reservoir simulation; thus, the results of this approach are the assessment of probabilistic resources. The power potential calculated from reservoir simulation results is used to develop proxy equations and then Monte Carlo simulations were applied on proxy models to produce probabilistic distributions of power potential output. Based on Monte Carlo Simulation, the probabilistic power capacity of Karaha–Talaga Bodas field is 120 MW as P50. This model is also used to estimate potential field responses based on two different field development scenarios. Forecasting two development scenarios shows that the best development is 60 MW with a make-up well strategy drilled in the deep-water zone. This scenario requires the number of production, injection, and make-up wells to be 11, 3, and 4, respectively. The reservoir response shows that the pressure drop is between 0.2 and 0.6 bar/year while the temperature drop is 2–14 °C for 30 years.

中文翻译：

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数值模拟研究卡拉哈—塔拉加博达斯地热田的发展

对Karaha–Talaga Bodas地热田进行了数值模拟研究，以评估资源并分析和预测各种开发情景下的储层行为。Karaha-Talaga Bodas油田的三维自然状态模型已经通过七个井的压力和温度以及该油田的概念模型进行了验证。本研究探索了一种实验设计和响应面方法在捕获地热储层模拟中存在的相关不确定性方面的应用；因此，这种方法的结果是对概率资源的评估。根据储层模拟结果计算出的电势被用于开发代理方程，然后将蒙特卡洛模拟应用于代理模型以产生电势输出的概率分布。基于蒙特卡洛模拟，卡拉哈–塔拉加博达斯油田的概率功率容量为P50为120兆瓦。该模型还用于基于两种不同的现场开发方案来估计潜在的现场响应。预测两个开发方案表明，最佳开发是60 MW，并在深水区钻一个补给井策略。这种情况要求生产井，注入井和补给井的数量分别为11、3和4。储层响应表明，压降在0.2至0.6 bar /年之间，而温降在30年间为2–14°C。基于蒙特卡洛模拟，卡拉哈–塔拉加博达斯油田的概率功率容量为P50为120兆瓦。该模型还用于基于两种不同的现场开发方案来估计潜在的现场响应。预测两个开发方案表明，最佳开发是60 MW，并在深水区钻一个补给井策略。这种情况要求生产井，注入井和补给井的数量分别为11、3和4。储层响应表明，压降在0.2至0.6 bar /年之间，而温降在30年间为2–14°C。基于蒙特卡罗模拟，卡拉哈–塔拉加博达斯油田的概率功率容量为P50为120兆瓦。该模型还用于基于两种不同的现场开发方案来估计潜在的现场响应。预测两个开发方案表明，最佳开发是60 MW，并在深水区钻一个补给井策略。此方案要求生产井，注入井和补给井的数量分别为11、3和4。储层响应表明，压降在0.2至0.6 bar /年之间，而温度降在30年间为2–14°C。预测两个开发方案表明，最佳开发是60 MW，并在深水区钻一个补给井策略。这种情况要求生产井，注入井和补给井的数量分别为11、3和4。储层响应表明，压降在0.2至0.6 bar /年之间，而温降在30年间为2–14°C。预测两个开发方案表明，最佳开发是60 MW，并在深水区钻一个补给井策略。此方案要求生产井，注入井和补给井的数量分别为11、3和4。储层响应表明，压降在0.2至0.6 bar /年之间，而温度降在30年间为2–14°C。