Ephemeral wetlands or kettle holes contain an often unique biodiversity of flora and fauna. In New Zealand, they can be an important breeding ground for iconic taonga species such as kakī/black stilt. Understanding the possible effects of climate change on the holes is a challenge as there is often limited information on the local hydrology, restricting the applicability of established hydrological models. We present a mathematical model that is parameterised using only recent rainfall data and water level. We assess the efficacy of our model to predict water levels under current climatic conditions and then explore the effects of a range of simple climate change scenarios. Our simple but effective modelling approach could be easily used in other situations where complex data and modelling expertise are unavailable.

中文翻译：

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在气候变化情景下预测临时湿地的水位

短暂的湿地或壶眼通常包含动植物群独特的生物多样性。在新西兰，它们可以成为像kakī/黑高跷这样的标志性taonga物种的重要繁殖地。了解气候变化对洞口的可能影响是一项挑战，因为有关当地水文学的信息通常很有限，从而限制了已建立的水文模型的适用性。我们提供了仅使用最近的降雨数据和水位进行参数化的数学模型。我们评估了我们模型的有效性，以预测当前气候条件下的水位，然后探索一系列简单的气候变化情景的影响。我们的简单但有效的建模方法可以轻松用于无法获得复杂数据和建模专业知识的其他情况。